Over the last four decades, the Indian government has been investing heavily in watershed development (WSD) programmes that are intended to improve the livelihoods of rural agrarian communities and maintain or improve natural resource condition. Given the massive investment in WSD in India, and the recent shift from micro-scale programmes (ha) to meso-scale (~5000 ha) clusters, robust methodological frameworks are needed to measure and analyse impacts of interventions across landscapes as well as between and within communities. In this paper, the sustainable livelihoods framework is implemented using Bayesian networks (BNs) to develop models of drought resilience and household livelihoods. Analysis of the natural capital component model provides little evidence that watershed development has influenced household resilience to drought and indicators of natural capital, beyond an increased area of irrigation due to greater access to groundwater. BNs have proved a valuable tool for implementing the sustainable livelihoods framework in a retrospective evaluation of implemented WSD programmes. Many of the challenges of evaluating watershed interventions using BNs are the same as for other analytical approaches. These are reliance on retrospective studies, identification and measurement of relevant indicators and isolating intervention impacts from contemporaneous events. The establishment of core biophysical and socio-economic indicators measured through longitudinal household surveys and monitoring programmes will be critical to the success of BNs as an evaluation tool for meso-scale WSD
We consider a renewal-reward process with multivariate rewards. Such a process is constructed from an i.i.d. sequence of time periods, to each of which there is associated a multivariate reward vector. The rewards in each time period may depend on each other and on the period length, but not on the other time periods. Rewards are accumulated to form a vector valued process that exhibits jumps in all coordinates simultaneously, only at renewal epochs.We derive an asymptotically exact expression for the covariance function (over time) of the rewards, which is used to refine a central limit theorem for the vector of rewards. As illustrated by a numerical example, this refinement can yield improved accuracy, especially for moderate timehorizons.
This paper considers a network of infinite-server queues with the special feature that, triggered by specific events, the network population vector may undergo a linear transformation (a 'multiplicative transition'). For this model we characterize the joint probability generating function in terms of a system of partial differential equations; this system enables the evaluation of (transient as well as stationary) moments. We show that several relevant systems fit in the framework developed, such as networks of retrial queues, networks in which jobs can be rerouted when links fail, and storage systems. Numerical examples illustrate how our results can be used to support design problems.
User demand on the computational resources of cloud computing platforms varies over time. These variations in demand can be predictable or unpredictable, resulting in 'bursty' fluctuations in demand. Furthermore, demand can arrive in batches, and users whose demands are not met can be impatient. We demonstrate how to compute the expected revenue loss over a finite time horizon in the presence of all these model characteristics through the use of matrix analytic methods. We then illustrate how to use this knowledge to make frequent short term provisioning decisions -transient provisioning. It is seen that taking each of the characteristics of fluctuating user demand (predictable, unpredictable, batchy) into account can result in a substantial reduction of losses. Moreover, our transient provisioning framework allows for a wide variety of system behaviors to be modeled and gives simple expressions for expected revenue loss which are straightforward to evaluate numerically.
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