Kelp forests (Order Laminariales) form key biogenic habitats in coastal regions of temperate and Arctic seas worldwide, providing ecosystem services valued in the range of billions of dollars annually. Although local evidence suggests that kelp forests are increasingly threatened by a variety of stressors, no comprehensive global analysis of change in kelp abundances currently exists.Here, we build and analyze a global database of kelp time series spanning the past half-century to assess regional and global trends in kelp abundances. We detected a high degree of geographic variation in trends, with regional variability in the direction and magnitude of change far exceeding a small global average decline (instantaneous rate of change = −0.018 y −1 ). Our analysis identified declines in 38% of ecoregions for which there are data (−0.015 to −0.18 y −1 ), increases in 27% of ecoregions (0.015 to 0.11 y −1 ), and no detectable change in 35% of ecoregions. These spatially variable trajectories reflected regional differences in the drivers of change, uncertainty in some regions owing to poor spatial and temporal data coverage, and the dynamic nature of kelp populations. We conclude that although global drivers could be affecting kelp forests at multiple scales, local stressors and regional variation in the effects of these drivers dominate kelp dynamics, in contrast to many other marine and terrestrial foundation species. A ssessing ecosystem change on a global scale has been instrumental in highlighting the magnitude of human impacts on natural ecosystems. For example, awareness of global declines in fish populations (1), coral reefs (2), and tropical rainforests (3) has substantially increased public interest and subsequent political motivation for environmental conservation. In some cases, global assessments have highlighted complex patterns of change (4, 5), which often reflect variable trajectories among regions (4). SignificanceKelp forests support diverse and productive ecological communities throughout temperate and arctic regions worldwide, providing numerous ecosystem services to humans. Literature suggests that kelp forests are increasingly threatened by a variety of human impacts, including climate change, overfishing, and direct harvest. We provide the first globally comprehensive analysis of kelp forest change over the past 50 y, identifying a high degree of variation in the magnitude and direction of change across the geographic range of kelps. These results suggest region-specific responses to global change, with local drivers playing an important role in driving patterns of kelp abundance. Increased monitoring aimed at understanding regional kelp forest dynamics is likely to prove most effective for the adaptive management of these important ecosystems.

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Two distinct organizational states of kelp forest communities, foliose algal assemblages and deforested barren areas, typically display sharp discontinuities. Mechanisms responsible for maintaining these state differences were studied by manipulating various features of their boundary regions. Urchins in the barren areas had significantly smaller gonads than those in adjacent kelp stands, implying that food was a limiting resource for urchins in the barrens. The abundance of drift algae and living foliose algae varied abruptly across the boundary between kelp beds and barren areas. These observations raise the question of why urchins from barrens do not invade kelp stands to improve their fitness. By manipulating kelp and urchin densities at boundary regions and within kelp beds, we tested the hypothesis that kelp stands inhibit invasion of urchins. Urchins that were experimentally added to kelp beds persisted and reduced kelp abundance until winter storms either swept the urchins away or caused them to seek refuge within crevices. Urchins invaded kelp bed margins when foliose algae were removed but were prevented from doing so when kelps were replaced with physical models. The sweeping motion of kelps over the seafloor apparently inhibits urchins from crossing the boundary between kelp stands and barren areas, thus maintaining these alternate stable states. Our findings suggest that kelp stands are able to defend themselves from their most important herbivores by combining their flexible morphology with the energy of wave‐generated surge. The inhibitory influence of this interaction may be an important mechanism maintaining the patchwork mosaics of barren areas and kelp beds that characterize many kelp forest ecosystems. Corresponding Editor: J. D. Witman.

We combine data collected from the past 40 years to estimate the indirect effects of sea otters (Enhydra lutris) on ecosystem carbon (C) production and storage across their North American range, from Vancouver Island to the western edge of Alaska's Aleutian Islands. We find that sea otters, by suppressing sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus spp) populations, allow kelp (Order Laminariales) ecosystems to develop with a net primary productivity (NPP) of 313–900 grams C per square meter per year (g C m−2 yr−1) and biomass density of 101–180 grams C per square meter (g C m−2). In the absence of sea otters, these areas would have an NPP of 25–70 g C m−2 yr−1 and biomass density of 8–14 g C m−2. Over an ecosystem area of approximately 5.1 × 1010 m2, the effect of sea otter predation on living kelp biomass alone represents a 4.4‐to 8.7‐teragram increase in C storage. At 2012 prices (US$47 per ton of C), this stored C would be valued at US$205 million–$408 million on the European Carbon Exchange. Although questions remain concerning the pathways and compartments of kelp C flux and storage, sea otters undoubtedly have a strong influence on these elements of the C cycle. Predator‐induced trophic cascades likely influence the rates of C flux and storage in many other species and ecosystems.

Some of the longest and most comprehensive marine ecosystem monitoring programs were established in the Gulf of Alaska following the environmental disaster of the Exxon Valdez oil spill over 30 years ago. These monitoring programs have been successful in assessing recovery from oil spill impacts, and their continuation decades later has now provided an unparalleled assessment of ecosystem responses to another newly emerging global threat, marine heatwaves. The 2014–2016 northeast Pacific marine heatwave (PMH) in the Gulf of Alaska was the longest lasting heatwave globally over the past decade, with some cooling, but also continued warm conditions through 2019. Our analysis of 187 time series from primary production to commercial fisheries and nearshore intertidal to offshore oceanic domains demonstrate abrupt changes across trophic levels, with many responses persisting up to at least 5 years after the onset of the heatwave. Furthermore, our suite of metrics showed novel community-level groupings relative to at least a decade prior to the heatwave. Given anticipated increases in marine heatwaves under current climate projections, it remains uncertain when or if the Gulf of Alaska ecosystem will return to a pre-PMH state.

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The changing global climate is having profound effects on coastal marine ecosystems around the world. Structure, functioning, and resilience, however, can vary geographically, depending on species composition, local oceanographic forcing, and other pressures from human activities and use. Understanding ecological responses to environmental change and predicting changes in the structure and functioning of whole ecosystems require large-scale, long-term studies, yet most studies trade spatial extent for temporal duration. We address this shortfall by integrating multiple long-term kelp forest monitoring datasets to evaluate biogeographic patterns and rates of change of key functional groups (FG) along the west coast of North America. Analysis of data from 469 sites spanning Alaska, USA, to Baja California, Mexico, and 373 species (assigned to 18 FG) reveals regional variation in responses to both long-term (2006-2016) change and a recent marine heatwave (2014-2016) associated with two atmospheric and oceanographic anomalies, the "Blob" and extreme El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Canopy-forming kelps appeared most