This is a repository copy of Tropical tree mortality has increased with rising atmospheric water stress.

No abstract

A better understanding of how climate affects growth in tree species is essential for improved predictions of forest dynamics under climate change. Long‐term climate averages (mean climate) drive spatial variations in species’ baseline growth rates, whereas deviations from these averages over time (anomalies) can create growth variation around the local baseline. However, the rarity of long‐term tree census data spanning climatic gradients has so far limited our understanding of their respective role, especially in tropical systems. Furthermore, tree growth sensitivity to climate is likely to vary widely among species, and the ecological strategies underlying these differences remain poorly understood. Here, we utilize an exceptional dataset of 49 years of growth data for 509 tree species across 23 tropical rainforest plots along a climatic gradient to examine how multiannual tree growth responds to both climate means and anomalies, and how species’ functional traits mediate these growth responses to climate. We show that anomalous increases in atmospheric evaporative demand and solar radiation consistently reduced tree growth. Drier forests and fast‐growing species were more sensitive to water stress anomalies. In addition, species traits related to water use and photosynthesis partly explained differences in growth sensitivity to both climate means and anomalies. Our study demonstrates that both climate means and anomalies shape tree growth in tropical forests and that species traits can provide insights into understanding these demographic responses to climate change, offering a promising way forward to forecast tropical forest dynamics under different climate trajectories.

PremiseFlexible phenological responses of invasive plants under climate change may increase their ability to establish and persist. A key aspect of plant phenology is the timing of root production, how it coincides with canopy development and subsequent water‐use. The timing of these events within species and across communities could influence the invasion process. We examined above‐ and belowground phenology of two species in southern California, the native shrub, Adenostoma fasciculatum, and the invasive perennial grass, Ehrharta calycina to investigate relative differences in phenology and water use.MethodsWe used normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to track whole‐canopy activity across the landscape and sap flux sensors on individual chaparral shrubs to assess differences in aboveground phenology of both species. To determine differences in belowground activity, we used soil moisture sensors, minirhizotron imagery, and stable isotopes.ResultsThe invasive grass depleted soil moisture earlier in the spring and produced longer roots at multiple depths earlier in the growing season than the native shrub. However, Adenostoma fasciculatum produced longer roots in the top 10 cm of soil profile in May. Aboveground activity of the two species peaked at the same time.ConclusionsThe fact that Ehrharta calycina possessed longer roots earlier in the season suggests that invasive plants may gain a competitive edge over native plants through early activity, while also depleting soil moisture earlier in the season. Depletion of soil moisture earlier by E. calycina suggests that invasive grasses could accelerate the onset of the summer drought in chaparral systems, assuring their persistence following invasion.

The physiological mechanisms underlying the short maximum height of shrubs are not understood. One possible explanation is that differences in the hydraulic architecture of shrubs compared with co-occurring taller trees prevent the shrubs from growing taller. To explore this hypothesis, we examined various hydraulic parameters, including vessel lumen diameter, hydraulic conductivity and vulnerability to drought-induced embolism, of three co-occurring species that differed in their maximum potential height. We examined one species of shrub, one short-statured tree and one taller tree. We worked with individuals that were approximately the same age and height, which was near the maximum for the shrub species. A number of variables correlated with the maximum potential height of the species. For example, vessel diameter and vulnerability to embolism both increased while wood density declined with maximum potential height. The difference between the pressure causing 50% reduction in hydraulic conductance in the leaves and the midday leaf water potential (the leaf's hydraulic safety margin) was much larger in the shrub than the other two species. In general, trends were consistent with understory shrubs having a more conservative life history strategy than co-occurring taller species.

A better understanding of how climate affects growth in tree species is essential for improved predictions of forest dynamics under climate change. Long-term climate averages (mean climate) and short-term deviations from these averages (anomalies) both influence tree growth, but the rarity of long-term data integrating climatic gradients with tree censuses has so far limited our understanding of their respective role, especially in tropical systems. Here, we combined 49 years of growth data for 509 tree species across 23 tropical rainforest plots along a climatic gradient to examine how tree growth responds to both climate means and anomalies, and how species functional traits mediate these tree growth responses to climate. We showed that short-term, anomalous increases in atmospheric evaporative demand and solar radiation consistently reduced tree growth. Drier forests and fast-growing species were more sensitive to water stress anomalies. In addition, species traits related to water use and photosynthesis partly explained differences in growth sensitivity to both long-term and short-term climate variations. Our study demonstrates that both climate means and anomalies shape tree growth in tropical forests, and that species traits can be leveraged to understand these demographic responses to climate change, offering a promising way forward to forecast tropical forest dynamics under different climate trajectories.

No abstract

Climate change is projected to significantly affect the vulnerability of forests across the western United States to wildfires, insects, disease, and droughts. Here, we provide recent mortality estimates for large trees for 53 species across 48 ecological sections using an analysis of 23,215 Forest Inventory plots and a Random Forest classification model. Models were also used to predict mortality in future FIA inventories under the RCP 4.5 emissions scenario. Model performance indicated species identity as the most important predictor of mortality under both current and future scenarios, with contributions from climate and soil variables. Our results show relatively high levels of recent mortality in the Middle and Southern Rocky Mountains driven by high mortality in Populus tremuloides, Pinus contorta, Pinus albicaulis, and Abies lasiocarpa. Low levels of mortality were observed in several species, with <1% annual mortality observed throughout all other sections. Future mortality was predicted to increase significantly for most species and correlated well with recent mortality at the species level, but not at the plot level. These results suggest that future attempts to model or predict widespread forest mortality would benefit from more research on vulnerable species and that significant mortality events in some species may not be important for dynamics across all systems.