U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facilities house thousands of undocumented immigrants in environments discordant with the public health recommendations to reduce the transmission of 2019 novel coronavirus . Using ICE detainee population data obtained from the ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) website as of March 2, 2020, we implemented a simple stochastic susceptibleexposed-infected-recovered model to estimate the rate of COVID-19 transmission within 111 ICE detention facilities and then examined impacts on regional hospital intensive care unit (ICU) capacity. Models considered three scenarios of transmission (optimistic, moderate, pessimistic) over 30-, 60-, and 90-day time horizons across a range of facility sizes. We found that 72% of individuals are expected to be infected by day 90 under the optimistic scenario (R0 = 2.5), while nearly 100% of individuals are expected to be infected by day 90 under a more pessimistic (R0 = 7) scenario. Although asynchronous outbreaks are more likely, day 90 estimates provide an approximation of total positive cases after all ICE facility outbreaks. We determined that, in the most optimistic scenario, coronavirus outbreaks among a minimum of 65 ICE facilities (59%) would overwhelm ICU J Urban Health
Before COVID-19 pandemic, advocates had long urged drug policy reforms based on health, security, civil rights, racial justice, fiscal stewardship, and other considerations. In the United States, such calls went largely unanswered. In response to COVID-19, public health and occupational safety concerns have rapidly transformed some drug policies, along with their enforcement. Almost contemporaneously, nationwide protests against violence and racism by militarized police have highlighted the enduring legacy of the Drug War in fueling carceral systems. Disruption from these historical events provides a once-in-a-century opportunity to reconsider the legal architecture of drug policy and policing–both in the U.S. and elsewhere. Rather than returning to a fundamentally broken and inequitable
status quo
, we urge envisioning a new drug policy in service to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.