Stroke commonly affects the ability of the upper extremities (UEs) to move normally. In clinical settings, identifying and measuring movement abnormality is challenging due to the imprecision and impracticality of available assessments. These challenges interfere with therapeutic tracking, communication, and treatment. We thus sought to develop an approach that blends precision and pragmatism, combining high-dimensional motion capture with out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. We used an array of wearable inertial measurement units to capture upper body motion in healthy and chronic stroke subjects performing a semi-structured, unconstrained 3D tabletop task. After data were labeled by human coders, we trained two deep learning models exclusively on healthy subject data to classify elemental movements (functional primitives). We tested these healthy subject-trained models on previously unseen healthy and stroke motion data. We found that model confidence, indexed by prediction probabilities, was generally high for healthy test data but significantly dropped when encountering OOD stroke data. Prediction probabilities worsened with more severe motor impairment categories and were directly correlated with individual impairment scores. Data inputs from the paretic UE, rather than trunk, most strongly influenced model confidence. We demonstrate for the first time that using OOD detection with high-dimensional motion data can reveal clinically meaningful movement abnormality in subjects with chronic stroke.
Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent uncertainty, such as weather forecasting, medical prognosis, or collision avoidance in autonomous vehicles. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the important difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. The goal of this work is to investigate probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on classification problems where the probabilities are related to model uncertainty. In the case of problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. Finally, we also propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data. * Contributed equally.
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