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Numerous studies have focused on delineating the relationship between tourism and economic growth. In this article, we present the results of a rigorous meta-regression analysis based on 545 estimates drawn from 113 studies that empirically tested the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH). The results suggest the presence of publication bias in the literature on this topic, where the majority of studies report positive and statistically significant estimates. Findings provide support for the TLGH, but they also suggest that the estimates are sensitive to a number of factors that are related to country data, specification, and estimation characteristics, and time span. Such sensitivities suggest that greater emphasis should be placed on reporting estimates of the relationship between tourism and economic growth across a variety of methodological characteristics and specification and estimation choices. The implications of the results for theory development are also discussed.

Purpose This study aims to confirm the expected impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) related to perceived travel risk on the likelihood of tourists to visit a destination. It then aims at identifying the key predictors of perceived travel risk in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. A theoretically grounded framework is proposed which can be further improved to understand and predict international travel behaviours within the context of global pandemics. Design/methodology/approach A mixed-methods design is adopted. In the first phase referred to as Study 1, a cross-sectional design is used based on a sample of 217 international outgoing tourists surveyed at the Mauritian International Airport and data is analysed using hierarchical regression. In Phase 2, referred to as Study 2, a purposive sample of tourists around the world are interviewed and data is analysed using the thematic analysis technique. Findings The results show that amongst those tourists who are willing to travel in the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis, the related perceived risk is likely to influence their travelling intention. Several key predictors of perceived travel risks are uncovered, those are categorised as COVID-19 status; transportation services; national sanitary measures; health-care services; accommodation services; ecotourism facilities. Moreover, the potential effects of those factors on perceived COVID-19 related travel risk are likely to be moderated by the trustworthiness of the information. Practical implications The implications of the study are important for researchers and policymakers to better understand and predict travellers’ behaviour in times of pandemics. These implications are also important to tourism marketers and transport and hospitality service providers to more effectively manage and mitigate the effect of such events. Originality/value The study provides an original comprehensive model grounded in the social cognitive theory and protection motivation theory to understand the predictors of perceived travel risks in relation to COVID-19 at a destination.