Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Evaluation of time-dependent predictors of loss to follow-up in a large HIV treatment program revealed that early adherence patterns, in addition to CD4 count and viral load, predicted loss to follow-up and should be used as measures in devising targeted interventions to increase program retention.

Background The 2013 WHO guidelines incorporated simplified and more effective antiretroviral regimens for the purposes of preventing mother-to-child transmission of HIV. With ideal implementation of these recommendations, perinatal HIV transmission could be reduced to less than 2%. However, loss to follow-up (LTFU) has the potential to erode the success of programs and a number of studies report high rates of LTFU within the prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) care cascade. We evaluated the timing and magnitude of LTFU in a large programmatic PMTCT cohort in Nigeria in order to focus future efforts to reduce loss in this high burden setting. Methods From 2004-2014, the APIN/Harvard PEPFAR program supported antenatal HIV screening for nearly one million pregnant women and provided PMTCT care to over 30,000 women. The care cascade for women enrolling in the PMTCT program includes antenatal, delivery, and infant follow-up services through 12-18 months of life. In this retrospective cohort analysis, we examined data collected between 2004-2014 from 31 clinical sites in Nigeria and assessed the numbers of mothers and infants enrolled and LTFU at various points along the care cascade. Results Among 31,504 women (median age 30, IQR: 27-34) entering PMTCT care during the antenatal period, 20,679 (66%) completed the entire cascade of services including antenatal, delivery, and at least one infant follow-up visit. The median gestational age at presentation for antenatal care services was 23 weeks (IQR: 17-29). The median infant age at last follow-up visit was 12 months (IQR: 5-18). The greatest loss in the PMTCT care cascade occurred prior to delivery care (21%), with a further 16% lost prior to first infant visit. Of the 38,223 women who entered at any point along the PMTCT cascade, an HIV DNA PCR was available for 20,202 (53%) of their infants. Among infants for whom DNA PCR results were available, the rate of HIV transmission for infants whose mothers received any antenatal and/or delivery care was 2.8% versus 20.0% if their mother received none. Conclusions In this large cohort analysis, the proportion of women LTFU in the PMTCT care cascade was lower than that reported in previous cohort analyses. Nevertheless, this proportion remains unacceptably high and inhibits the program from maximally achieving the goals of PMTCT care. We also provide the largest analysis to date on rates of perinatal HIV transmission, with low rates among women receiving NNRTI- or PI-based regimens, approaching that reported in clinical trials. However, among mothers who received any antenatal care, infant outcomes were unknown for 48%, and women presented later in pregnancy than that recommended by current guidelines. Implementation research to evaluate ways to improve integration of services, particularly transitions from antenatal to delivery and pediatric care, are critically needed to reduce LTFU within PMTCT programs and achieve the ultimate goal of eliminating pediatric HIV infection.

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The transition to PEPFAR 2.0 with its focus on country ownership was accompanied by substantial funding cuts. We describe the impact of this transition on HIV care in a large network of HIV clinics in Nigeria. We surveyed 30 comprehensive HIV treatment clinics to assess services supported before (October 2013-September 2014) and after (October 2014-September 2015) the PEPFAR funding policy change, the impact of these policy changes on service delivery areas, and response of clinics to the change. We compared differences in support for staffing, laboratory services, and clinical operations pre- and post-policy change using paired t-tests. We used framework analysis to assess answers to open ended questions describing responses to the policy change. Most sites (83%, n = 25) completed the survey. The majority were public (60%, n = 15) and secondary (68%, n = 17) facilities. Clinics had a median of 989 patients in care (IQR: 543–3326). All clinics continued to receive support for first and second line antiretrovirals and CD4 testing after the policy change, while no clinics received support for other routine drug monitoring labs. We found statistically significant reductions in support for viral load testing, staff employment, defaulter tracking, and prevention services (92% vs. 64%, p = 0.02; 80% vs. 20%, 100% vs. 44%, 84% vs. 16%, respectively, p<0.01 for all) after the policy change. Service delivery was hampered by interrupted laboratory services and reduced wages and staff positions leading to reduced provider morale, and compromised quality of care. Almost all sites (96%) introduced user fees to address funding shortages. Clinics in Nigeria are experiencing major challenges in providing routine HIV services as a result of PEPFAR’s policy changes. Funding cutbacks have been associated with compromised quality of care, staff shortages, and reliance on fee-based care for historically free services. Sustainable HIV services funding models are urgently needed.