Transportation is one of the major carbon sources in China. Container throughput is one of the main influencing factors of ports’ carbon emission budget, and accurate prediction of container throughput is of great significance to the study of carbon emissions. Time series methods are key techniques and frequently used for container throughput. However, the existing time series methods treat container throughput data as discrete points and ignore the functional characteristics of the data. There has recently been interest in developing new statistical methods to predict time series by taking into account a continuous set of past values as predictors. In addition, to eliminate the linear constraint in the functional time series prediction approach, we propose a functional version of a nonparametric model that allows using a continuous path in the past to predict future values of the process, including functional nonparametric regression and functional conditional quantile and functional conditional mode models, to forecast the container throughput of Shanghai Port. For the purpose better forecasting, an experiment was conducted to compare our functional data analysis approaches with other forecasting methods. The results indicated that nonparametric functional forecasting methods exhibit more significant performance than other classical models, including the functional linear regression model, nonparametric regression model, and autoregressive integrated moving-average model. At the same time, we also compared the prediction accuracy of the three nonparametric functional methods.
The definitions of a port and of port functions under new circumstances were presented based on the traditional definition of a port, combining economic and social development demands. In order to fully recognize the current situation of Chinese port functions, an investigation into port functions was conducted in Guangdong, Hebei and Shandong etc. Taking the investigated ports as reference samples, generational characteristics, port importance, port throughput, proportion of foreign trade cargo throughput, proportion of container throughput and proportion of container throughput on international routes are chosen as the major investigation objects. Furthermore, qualitative or quantitative partition methods are employed respectively to assess the present situation of ports and development stage of Chinese coastal ports and major river ports. Finally, a basic framework of Chinese port service function system and future development directions are established, combining characteristics of Chinese ports and by drawing lessons from port functions developments in foreign advanced countries.
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