Population increases and municipal and recreational uses, as well as growing uncertainties about the effects of global climate change, call for a new approach to water use and water resource management. Two powerful tools, climate change risk assessment and total water management, can be used to determine the vulnerability of water management systems to climate change. These tools can also be used to drive the development of integrated water management strategies and infrastructure to provide water supplies that are more resilient to the effects of climate change. One approach for assessing the risks of climate change to water systems is to use a dual analytical framework known as the threshold‐scenario risk assessment. The framework comprises two parts: the more qualitative threshold risk assessment approach; and, the quantitative scenario risk assessment approach. This article provides tools, resources, examples, and new, holistic solutions that can be used to manage both the built and natural portions of the water cycle. Water professionals will find this approach more effective than considering the components separately when addressing the challenges posed by global climate change.
PNL-6160 UC-95c This report documents the results of an evaluation of the impacts on irrigation system energy consumption of conservation measures installed under the Bonneville Power Administration's Stage II retrofit program. Historical billing data and other farm records provided the basis for this evaluation. A number of different statistical techniques were used to estimate the actual energy savings resulting from the Stage II conservation measures. The results of the study reveal that the methodology used in predicting energy savings resulting from the Stage II program is accurate. The basis for energy savings predictions in the Stage II program are changes in brake horsepower, and, in this study, a 1% change in brake horsepower was found to result in slightly more than a 1% change in energy consumption. Overall, Stage II program conservation measures were found to reduce irrigation system energy use by an average of 34%. The average costs of obtaining these savings were 6 mills (.6 cents) per kWh saved • ; i; The analysis conducted in Task I revealed that the installation of conservation measures under the Stage II program had unambiguously resulted in energy savings for participating systems. The mean values for the Task 1 savings estimates were 16% on an unadjusted basis and 23.1% on a weatheradjusted basis. However, the variances of the Task 1 savings estimates were so high and the corresponding confidence intervals so wide that these estimates provided little information for predicting and evaluating the levels of the energy savings resulting from the Stage II program. Use of weather adjustment factors, stratification of estimates by utility, and other techniques generally were unsuccessful in reducing the variances of the Task 1 savings estimates. Comparison of the unadjusted Task 1 savings estimates to percentage savings estimates predicted on irrigation system audits conducted in association with the Stage II program revealed that predicted savings were higher than the Task 1 savings estimates. In addition, the difference was statistically significant. However, the data and methodology used in developing the Task I results are not sufficiently rigorous to support v a conclusion that the Stage II program is achieving lower actual energy savings than were predicted in the audits. Additional comparisons of matched control and retrofit irrigation accounts(•) for selected Stage II program participants were performed in Task
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