Objective -To develop and validate a set of practical prediction tools that reliably estimate the outcome of subarachnoid haemorrhage from ruptured intracranial aneurysms (SAH).Design -Cohort study with logistic regression analysis to combine predictors and treatment modality.Setting -Subarachnoid Haemorrhage International Trialists' (SAHIT) data repository, including randomised clinical trials, prospective observational studies, and hospital registries.Participants -Researchers collaborated to pool datasets of prospective observational studies, hospital registries, and randomised clinical trials of SAH from multiple geographical regions to develop and validate clinical prediction models.Main outcome measure -Predicted risk of mortality or functional outcome at three months according to score on the Glasgow outcome scale.Results -Clinical prediction models were developed with individual patient data from 10 936 patients and validated with data from 3355 patients after development of the model. In the validation cohort, a core model including patient age, premorbid hypertension, and neurological grade on admission to predict risk of functional outcome had good discrimination, with an area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUC) of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 0.82). When the core model was extended to a "neuroimaging model," with inclusion of clot volume, aneurysm size, and location, the AUC improved to 0.81 (0.79 to 0.84). A full model that extended the neuroimaging model by including treatment modality had AUC of 0.81 (0.79 to 0.83). Discrimination was lower for a similar set of models to predict risk of mortality (AUC for full model 0.76, 0.69 to 0.82). All models showed satisfactory calibration in the validation cohort. Conclusion -The prediction models reliably estimate the outcome of patients who were managed in various settings for ruptured intracranial aneurysms that caused subarachnoid haemorrhage. The predictor items are readily derived at hospital admission. The web based SAHIT prognostic calculator (http://sahitscore.com) and the related app could be adjunctive tools to support management of patients. IntroductionSubarachnoid haemorrhage from a ruptured intracranial aneurysm (SAH) is a relatively uncommon but severe subtype of stroke that is associated with a sudden dramatic onset in otherwise apparently healthy individuals and often results in poor outcomes. On average, a third of affected individuals do not survive; at least one in five of those who do survive are unable to regain functional independence.1 SAH is unlike the more common ischaemic stroke as it affects younger adults (median age 55) and therefore results in disproportionately many years of lost productive life.1 2 Predicting the outcome of this condition can be challenging given the considerable heterogeneity in the characteristics of affected individuals and their clinical course and variability in morphology of the aneurysm. Reliance on clinical intuition alone might be insufficient for accur...

While clinical prediction models for aSAH use a few simple predictors, there are substantial methodological problems with the models and none have had external validation. This precludes the use of existing models for clinical or research purposes. We recommend further studies to develop and validate reliable clinical prediction models for aSAH.

FRESH is the first clinical tool to prognosticate long-term outcome after spontaneous SAH in a multidimensional manner. Ann Neurol 2016;80:46-58.

BackgroundElevated catecholamine levels might be associated with unfavorable outcome after traumatic brain injury (TBI). We investigated the association between catecholamine levels in the first 24 h post-trauma and functional outcome in patients with isolated moderate-to-severe TBI.MethodsA cohort of 174 patients who sustained isolated blunt TBI was prospectively enrolled from three Level-1 Trauma Centers. Epinephrine (Epi) and norepinephrine (NE) concentrations were measured at admission (baseline), 6, 12 and 24 h post-injury. Outcome was assessed at 6 months by the extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOSE) score. Fractional polynomial plots and logistic regression models (fixed and random effects) were used to study the association between catecholamine levels and outcome. Effect size was reported as the odds ratio (OR) associated with one logarithmic change in catecholamine level.ResultsAt 6 months, 109 patients (62.6%) had an unfavorable outcome (GOSE 5–8 vs. 1–4), including 51 deaths (29.3%). Higher admission levels of Epi were associated with a higher risk of unfavorable outcome (OR, 2.04, 95% CI: 1.31–3.18, p = 0.002) and mortality (OR, 2.86, 95% CI: 1.62–5.01, p = 0.001). Higher admission levels of NE were associated with higher risk of unfavorable outcome (OR, 1.59, 95% CI: 1.07–2.35, p = 0.022) but not mortality (OR, 1.45, 95% CI: 0.98–2.17, p = 0.07). There was no relationship between the changes in Epi levels over time and mortality or unfavorable outcome. Changes in NE levels with time were statistically associated with a higher risk of mortality, but the changes had no relation to unfavorable outcome.ConclusionsElevated circulating catecholamines, especially Epi levels on hospital admission, are independently associated with functional outcome and mortality after isolated moderate-to-severe TBI.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13054-017-1620-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Background and Purpose— Patients are classically at risk of delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI) after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage. We validated a grading scale—the VASOGRADE—for prediction of DCI. Methods— We used data of 3 phase II randomized clinical trials and a single hospital series to assess the relationship between the VASOGRADE and DCI. The VASOGRADE derived from previously published risk charts and consists of 3 categories: VASOGRADE-Green (modified Fisher scale 1 or 2 and World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies scale [WFNS] 1 or 2); VASOGRADE-Yellow (modified Fisher 3 or 4 and WFNS 1–3); and VASOGRADE-Red (WFNS 4 or 5, irrespective of modified Fisher grade). The relation between the VASOGRADE and DCI was assessed by logistic regression models. The predictive accuracy of the VASOGRADE was assessed by receiver operating characteristics curve and calibration plots. Results— In a cohort of 746 patients, the VASOGRADE significantly predicted DCI ( P <0.001). The VASOGRADE-Yellow had a tendency for increased risk for DCI (odds ratio [OR], 1.31; 95% CI, 0.77–2.23) when compared with VASOGRADE-Green; those with VASOGRADE-Red had a 3-fold higher risk of DCI (OR, 3.19; 95% CI, 2.07–4.50). Studies were not a significant confounding factor between the VASOGRADE and DCI. The VASOGRADE had an adequate discrimination for prediction of DCI (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve=0.63) and good calibration. Conclusions— The VASOGRADE results validated previously published risk charts in a large and diverse sample of subarachnoid hemorrhage patients, which allows DCI risk stratification on presentation after subarachnoid hemorrhage. It could help to select patients at high risk of DCI, as well as standardize treatment protocols and research studies.

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Although mortality remains high in poor-grade SAH patients, a favorable functional outcome can be achieved in approximately one-third of patients. The development of new diagnostic methods and implementation of therapeutic approaches were probably responsible for the decrease in mortality and improvement in the functional outcome from 1970 to the 1990s. The plateau in functional outcome seen thereafter might be explained by the treatment of sicker and older patients and by the lack of new therapeutic interventions specific for SAH.