Long‐term trends in solar quiet geomagnetic field variation (Sq) are studied in connection to the Earth's magnetic field secular variations and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Sq is mainly caused by ionospheric current systems that flow in the E region and depends, among other variables, on the ionospheric conductivities. These conductivities in turn depend on the Earth's main magnetic field (B) and the electron concentration in the E region, for which foE is a measure of its peak value. Since B shows secular variation, induced long‐term changes in Sq might be expected. Another possible mechanism that would be able to induce Sq trends is the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases that produce a cooling effect in the upper atmosphere and, according to model predictions and experimental results, an increasing trend in foE. To detect if both mechanisms mentioned are able to induce trends in Sq, the Sq variation of the horizontal intensity (H) of three magnetic observatories (Apia, Fredericksburg, and Hermanus), for which B is decreasing, is analyzed for the period 1960–2001. We find significant increasing trends (6.6%, 5.4%, and 9.9%, respectively) which may be partially accounted for by B secular variations in the respective sites. The Sq trend expected from the theoretically predicted foE increase is low (∼0.5%), although positive, as is the observed trend.

The daily amplitude of the solar quiet (Sq) magnetic variation of the horizontal intensity, H, of observatories at low and midlatitudes is analyzed, in search of significant long‐term trends. These trends are expected based on secular variations of the Earth's magnetic field (B) and increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases which can affect Sq for instance through their effect on ionospheric conductivities and E‐region electron concentration. The hourly horizontal geomagnetic field component, H, measured at Apia, Fredericksburg, Hermanus, Bangui, and Trivandrum was analyzed for the period 1960–2000. The solar activity effect was filtered out from the daily Sq amplitude of H, and then linear trends were calculated and compared to trend values obtained from the Coupled Magnetosphere‐Ionosphere‐Thermosphere model. Linear trends were calculated separately for periods of different secular trends in the magnetic field intensity, B. We found significant trends in experimental data for Apia, Fredericksburg, Hermanus, and for the period 1960–1983 for Bangui. There is reasonable quantitative agreement between experimental and simulated trends, and a qualitative agreement with trends expected from the secular trend in B.

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The effect of including solar cycle 23 in foF2 trend estimation is assessed using experimental values for Slough (51. 5°N, 359.4°E) and Kokobunji (35.7°N, 139.5°E), and values obtained from two models: (1) the Sheffield University Plasmasphere-Ionosphere model, SUPIM, and (2) the International Reference Ionosphere, IRI. The dominant influence on the F2 layer is solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation, evinced by the almost 90% variance of its parameters explained by solar EUV proxies such as the solar activity indices Rz and F10.7. This makes necessary to filter out solar activity effects prior to long-term trend estimation. Solar cycle 23 seems to have had an EUV emission different from that deduced from traditional solar EUV proxies. During maximum and descending phase of the cycle, Rz and F10.7 seem to underestimate EUV solar radiation, while during minimum, they overestimate EUV levels. Including this solar cycle in trend estimations then, and using traditional filtering techniques, may induce some spurious results. In the present work, filtering is done in the usual way considering the residuals of the linear regression between foF2 and F10.7, for both experimental and modeled values. foF2 trends become less negative as we include years after 2000, since foF2 systematically exceeds the values predicted by a linear fit between foF2 and F10.7. Trends become more negative again when solar cycle 23 minimum is included, since for this period, foF2 is systematically lower than values predicted by the linear fit. foF2 trends assessed with modeled foF2 values are less strong than those obtained with experimental foF2 values and more stable as solar cycle 23 is included in the trend estimation. Modeled trends may be thought of as a 'zero level' trend due to the assumptions made in the process of trend estimation considering also that we are not dealing with ideal conditions or infinite time series.

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