We discuss problems the null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) paradigm poses for replication and more broadly in the biomedical and social sciences as well as how these problems remain unresolved by proposals involving modified p-value thresholds, confidence intervals, and Bayes factors. We then discuss our own proposal, which is to abandon statistical significance. We recommend dropping the NHST paradigm-and the p-value thresholds intrinsic to it-as the default statistical paradigm for research, publication, and discovery in the biomedical and social sciences. Specifically, we propose that the p-value be demoted from its threshold screening role and instead, treated continuously, be considered along with currently subordinate factors (e.g., related prior evidence, plausibility of mechanism, study design and data quality, real world costs and benefits, novelty of finding, and other factors that vary by research domain) as just one among many pieces of evidence. We have no desire to "ban" p-values or other purely statistical measures. Rather, we believe that such measures should not be thresholded and that, thresholded or not, they should not take priority over the currently subordinate factors. We also argue that it seldom makes sense to calibrate evidence as a function of p-values or other purely statistical measures. We offer recommendations for how our proposal can be implemented in the scientific publication process as well as in statistical decision making more broadly.
A typical behavioral research paper features multiple studies of a common phenomenon that are analyzed solely in isolation. Because the studies are of a common phenomenon, this practice is inefficient and forgoes important benefits that can be obtained only by analyzing them jointly in a single-paper meta-analysis (SPM). To facilitate SPM, we introduce meta-analytic methodology that is userfriendly, widely applicable, and specially tailored to the SPM of the set of studies that appear in a typical behavioral research paper. Our SPM methodology provides important benefits for study summary, theory testing, and replicability that we illustrate via three case studies that include papers recently published in the Journal of Consumer Research and the Journal of Marketing Research. We advocate that authors of typical behavioral research papers use it to supplement the single-study analyses that independently examine the multiple studies in the body of their papers as well as the "qualitative meta-analysis" that verbally synthesizes the studies in the general discussion of their papers. When used as such, this requires only a minor modification of current practice. We provide an easy-to-use website that implements our SPM methodology.
We review and evaluate selection methods, a prominent class of techniques first proposed by Hedges (1984) that assess and adjust for publication bias in meta-analysis, via an extensive simulation study. Our simulation covers both restrictive settings as well as more realistic settings and proceeds across multiple metrics that assess different aspects of model performance. This evaluation is timely in light of two recently proposed approaches, the so-called p-curve and p-uniform approaches, that can be viewed as alternative implementations of the original Hedges selection method approach. We find that the p-curve and p-uniform approaches perform reasonably well but not as well as the original Hedges approach in the restrictive setting for which all three were designed. We also find they perform poorly in more realistic settings, whereas variants of the Hedges approach perform well. We conclude by urging caution in the application of selection methods: Given the idealistic model assumptions underlying selection methods and the sensitivity of population average effect size estimates to them, we advocate that selection methods should be used less for obtaining a single estimate that purports to adjust for publication bias ex post and more for sensitivity analysisthat is, exploring the range of estimates that result from assuming different forms of and severity of publication bias.
We comment on Iacobucci, Posavac, Kardes, Schneider, and Popovich (2015) by evaluating the practice of discretizing continuous variables. We show that dichotomizing a continuous variable via the median split procedure or otherwise and analyzing the resulting data via ANOVA involves a large number of costs that can be avoided by preserving the continuous nature of the variable and analyzing the data via linear regression. As a consequence, we recommend that regression remain the normative procedure both when the statistical assumptions explored by Iacobucci et al. hold and more generally in research involving continuous variables. We also discuss the advantages of preserving the continuous nature of the variable for graphical presentation and provide practical suggestions for such presentations.
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