Purpose: Lynch syndrome (LS) screening among patients with newly diagnosed colorectal cancer can decrease mortality in their affected first-degree relatives. In Germany, it is not yet clinical practice and the cost-effectiveness of different testing strategies is unknown. Methods:We developed a decision-analytic model to analyze the cost-effectiveness of LS screening from the perspective of the German Statutory Health Insurance system. A total of 22 testing strategies considering family-history assessment, analysis of tumor samples (i.e., immunohistochemistry (IHC), microsatellite instability, and BRAF mutation testing) and genetic sequencing were analyzed. Life-years gained in relatives by closedmeshed colonoscopy and aspirin prophylaxis were estimated by Markov models. Uncertainty was assessed deterministically and probabilistically.Results: On average, detected mutation carriers gained 0.52 lifeyears (undiscounted: 1.34) by increased prevention. Most strategies were dominated, with three exceptions: family assessment by the Bethesda criteria followed by IHC and BRAF testing and genetic sequencing; IHC and BRAF testing and genetic sequencing; and direct sequencing of all index patients. Their incremental cost-effectiveness was €77,268, €253,258, and €4,188,036 per life-year gained, respectively. Conclusion:The results were less favorable than those of previous models. Chemoprevention appears to provide comparably low additional benefit and improves cost-effectiveness only slightly.

BackgroundTransition from hospital to home is a critical period for older persons with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Home-based secondary prevention programs led by nurses have been proposed to facilitate the patients’ adjustment to AMI after discharge. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of a nurse-based case management for elderly patients discharged after an AMI from a tertiary care hospital.MethodsIn a single-centre randomized two-armed parallel group trial of patients aged 65 years and older hospitalized with an AMI between September 2008 and May 2010 in the Hospital of Augsburg, Germany, patients were randomly assigned to a case management or a control group receiving usual care. The case-management intervention consisted of a nurse-based follow-up for one year including home visits and telephone calls. Key elements of the intervention were to detect problems or risks and to give advice regarding a wide range of aspects of disease management (e.g. nutrition, medication). Primary study endpoint was time to first unplanned readmission or death. Block randomization per telephone call to a biostatistical center, where the randomization list was kept, was performed. Persons who assessed one-year outcomes and validated readmission data were blinded. Statistical analysis was based on the intention-to-treat approach and included Cox Proportional Hazards models.ResultsThree hundred forty patients were allocated to receive case-management (n=168) or usual care (n=172). The analysis is based on 329 patients (intervention group: n=161; control group: n=168). Of these, 62% were men, mean age was 75.4 years, and 47.1% had at least either diabetes or chronic heart failure as a major comorbidity. The mean follow-up time for the intervention group was 273.6 days, and for the control group it was 320.6 days. During one year, in the intervention group there were 57 first unplanned readmissions and 5 deaths, while the control group had 75 first unplanned readmissions and 3 deaths. With respect to the endpoint there was no significant effect of the case management program after one year (Hazard Ratio 1.01, 95% confidence interval 0.72-1.41). This was also the case among subgroups according to sex, diabetes, living alone, and comorbidities.ConclusionsA nurse-based management among elderly patients with AMI had no significant influence on the rate of first unplanned readmissions or death during a one-year follow-up. A possible long-term influence should be investigated by further studies.Clinical trial registrationISRCTN02893746

Background: Health insurance coverage for all citizens is often considered a requisite for reducing disparities in health care accessibility. In Germany, health insurees are covered either by statutory health insurance (SHI) or private health insurance (PHI). Due to a 20%-35% higher reimbursement of physicians for patients with PHI, it is often claimed that patients with SHI are faced with longer waiting times when it comes to obtaining outpatient appointments. There is little empirical evidence regarding outpatient waiting times for patients with different health insurance status in Germany.

The EQ-5D has shown reasonable validity, reliability and, more limited, responsiveness in stroke patients with mild to moderate limitations of functional status, allowing it to be used in clinical trials in rehabilitation.

Objectives Progression-free survival (PFS) has not been validated as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) for anthracycline (A) and taxane-based (T) chemotherapy in advanced breast cancer (ABC). Using trial-level, meta-analytic approaches, we evaluated PFS as a surrogate endpoint. Methods A literature review identified randomized, controlled A and T trials for ABC. Progression-based endpoints were classified by prospective definitions. Treatment effects were derived as hazard ratios for PFS (HRPFS) and OS (HROS). Kappa statistic assessed overall agreement. A fixed-effects regression model was used to predict HROS from observed HRPFS. Cross-validation was performed. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses were performed for PFS definition, year of last patient recruitment, line of treatment, and constant rate assumption. Results Sixteen A and fifteen T trials met inclusion criteria, producing seventeen A (n = 4,323) and seventeen T (n = 5,893) trial-arm pairs. Agreement (kappa statistic) between the direction of HROS and HRPFS was 0.71 for A (p = .0029) and 0.75 for T (p = .0028). While HRPFS was a statistically significant predictor of HROS for both A (p = .0019) and T (p = .012), the explained variances were 0.49 (A) and 0.35 (T). In cross-validation, 97 percent of the 95 percent prediction intervals crossed the equivalence line, and the direction of predicted HROS agreed with observed HROS in 82 percent (A) and 76 percent (T). Results were robust in sensitivity and subgroup analyses. Conclusions This meta-analysis suggests that the trial-level treatment effect on PFS is significantly associated with the trial-level treatment effect on OS. However, prediction of OS based on PFS is surrounded with uncertainty.

BackgroundThere is an on-going debate about whether to perform surgery on early stage localised prostate cancer and risk the common long term side effects such as urinary incontinence and erectile dysfunction. Alternatively these patients could be closely monitored and treated only in case of disease progression (active surveillance). The aim of this paper is to develop a decision-analytic model comparing the cost-utility of active surveillance (AS) and radical prostatectomy (PE) for a cohort of 65 year old men with newly diagnosed low risk prostate cancer.MethodsA Markov model comparing PE and AS over a lifetime horizon was programmed in TreeAge from a German societal perspective. Comparative disease specific mortality was obtained from the Scandinavian Prostate Cancer Group trial. Direct costs were identified via national treatment guidelines and expert interviews covering in-patient, out-patient, medication, aids and remedies as well as out of pocket payments. Utility values were used as factor weights for age specific quality of life values of the German population. Uncertainty was assessed deterministically and probabilistically.ResultsWith quality adjustment, AS was the dominant strategy compared with initial treatment. In the base case, it was associated with an additional 0.04 quality adjusted life years (7.60 QALYs vs. 7.56 QALYs) and a cost reduction of €6,883 per patient (2011 prices). Considering only life-years gained, PE was more effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €96,420/life year gained. Sensitivity analysis showed that the probability of developing metastases under AS and utility weights under AS are a major sources of uncertainty. A Monte Carlo simulation revealed that AS was more likely to be cost-effective even under very high willingness to pay thresholds.ConclusionAS is likely to be a cost-saving treatment strategy for some patients with early stage localised prostate cancer. However, cost-effectiveness is dependent on patients’ valuation of health states. Better predictability of tumour progression and modified reimbursement practice would support widespread use of AS in the context of the German health care system. More research is necessary in order to reliably quantify the health benefits compared with initial treatment and account for patient preferences.

background. The evidence concerning the cost-effectiveness of UGT1A1 * 28 genotyping is ambiguous and does not allow drawing valid conclusions for Germany. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of UGT1A1 genotyping in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer undergoing irinotecan-based chemotherapy compared to no testing from the perspective of the German statutory health insurance. Material and methods. A decision-analytic Markov model with a life time horizon was developed. No testing was compared to two genotype-dependent therapy strategies: 1) dose reduction by 25%; and 2) administration of a prophylactic G-CSF growth factor analog for homozygous and heterozygous patients. Probability, quality of life and cost parameters used in this study were based on published literature. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to account for parameter uncertainties. results. Strategy 1 dominated all remaining strategies. Compared to no testing, it resulted in only marginal QALY increases (0.0002) but a cost reduction of €580 per patient. Strategy 2 resulted in the same health gains but increased costs by €10 773. In the probabilistic analysis, genotyping and dose reduction was the optimal strategy in approximately 100% of simulations at a threshold of €50 000 per QALY. Deterministic sensitivity analysis shows that uncertainty for this strategy originated primarily from costs for irinotecan-based chemotherapy, from the prevalence of neutropenia among heterozygous patients, and from whether dose reduction is applied to both homozygotes and heterozygotes or only to the former. conclusion. This model-based synthesis of the most recent evidence suggests that pharmacogenetic UGT1A1 testing prior to irinotecan-based chemotherapy dominates non-personalized colon cancer care in Germany. However, as structural uncertainty remains high, these results require validation in clinical practice, e.g. based on a managed-entry agreement.

From the SHI perspective, undergoing BM plus immediate BSO should be recommended to BRCA 1 or 2 mutation carriers due to its favorable comparative cost-effectiveness.