We analyze the Ensemble and Polynomial Chaos Kalman filters applied to nonlinear stationary Bayesian inverse problems. In a sequential data assimilation setting such stationary problems arise in each step of either filter. We give a new interpretation of the approximations produced by these two popular filters in the Bayesian context and prove that, in the limit of large ensemble or high polynomial degree, both methods yield approximations which converge to a well-defined random variable termed the analysis random variable. We then show that this analysis variable is more closely related to a specific linear Bayes estimator than to the solution of the associated Bayesian inverse problem given by the posterior measure. This suggests limited or at least guarded use of these generalized Kalman filter methods for the purpose of uncertainty quantification.

Metropolis algorithms for approximate sampling of probability measures on infinite dimensional Hilbert spaces are considered and a generalization of the preconditioned Crank-Nicolson (pCN) proposal is introduced. The new proposal is able to incorporate information on the measure of interest. A numerical simulation of a Bayesian inverse problem indicates that a Metropolis algorithm with such a proposal performs independently of the state space dimension and the variance of the observational noise. Moreover, a qualitative convergence result is provided by a comparison argument for spectral gaps. In particular, it is shown that the generalization inherits geometric convergence from the Metropolis algorithm with pCN proposal.

We give a convergence proof for the approximation by sparse collocation of Hilbert-space-valued functions depending on countably many Gaussian random variables. Such functions appear as solutions of elliptic PDEs with lognormal diffusion coefficients. We outline a general L 2 -convergence theory based on previous work by Bachmayr et al. [4] and Chen [9] and establish an algebraic convergence rate for sufficiently smooth functions assuming a mild growth bound for the univariate hierarchical surpluses of the interpolation scheme applied to Hermite polynomials. We verify specifically for Gauss-Hermite nodes that this assumption holds and also show algebraic convergence w.r.t. the resulting number of sparse grid points for this case. Numerical experiments illustrate the dimension-independent convergence rate.

The Bayesian approach to inverse problems provides a rigorous framework for the incorporation and quantification of uncertainties in measurements, parameters and models. We are interested in designing numerical methods which are robust w.r.t. the size of the observational noise, i.e., methods which behave well in case of concentrated posterior measures. The concentration of the posterior is a highly desirable situation in practice, since it relates to informative or large data. However, it can pose a computational challenge for numerical methods based on the prior measure. We propose to employ the Laplace approximation of the posterior as the base measure for numerical integration in this context. The Laplace approximation is a Gaussian measure centered at the maximum a-posteriori estimate and with covariance matrix depending on the logposterior density. We discuss convergence results of the Laplace approximation in terms of the Hellinger distance and analyze the efficiency of Monte Carlo methods based on it. In particular, we show that Laplace-based importance sampling and Laplace-based quasi-Monte-Carlo methods are robust w.r.t. the concentration of the posterior for large classes of posterior distributions and integrands whereas prior-based importance sampling and plain quasi-Monte Carlo are not. Numerical experiments are presented to illustrate the theoretical findings.

In this note we consider the robustness of posterior measures occuring in Bayesian inference w.r.t. perturbations of the prior measure and the log-likelihood function. This extends the well-posedness analysis of Bayesian inverse problems. In particular, we prove a general local Lipschitz continuous dependence of the posterior on the prior and the log-likelihood w.r.t. various common distances of probability measures. These include the Hellinger and Wasserstein distance and the Kullback-Leibler divergence. We only assume the boundedness of the likelihoods and measure their perturbations in an L p -norm w.r.t. the prior. The obtained robustness yields under mild assumptions the well-posedness of Bayesian inverse problems, in particular, a well-posedness w.r.t. the Wasserstein distance which is missing in the existing literature. Moreover, our results indicate an increasing sensitivity of Bayesian inference as the posterior becomes more concentrated, e.g., due to more or more accurate data. This confirms and extends previous observations made in the sensitivity analysis of Bayesian inference.