SummaryBackgroundThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.MethodsWe estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.FindingsGlobally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1–4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0–8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 mil...

BackgroundAntimicrobial resistance (AMR) is widely acknowledged as a global problem, yet in many parts of the world its magnitude is still not well understood. This review, using a public health focused approach, aimed to understand and describe the current status of AMR in Africa in relation to common causes of infections and drugs recommended in WHO treatment guidelines.MethodsPubMed, EMBASE and other relevant databases were searched for recent articles (2013–2016) in accordance with the PRISMA guidelines. Article retrieval and screening were done using a structured search string and strict inclusion/exclusion criteria. Median and interquartile ranges of percent resistance were calculated for each antibiotic-bacterium combination.ResultsAMR data was not available for 42.6% of the countries in the African continent. A total of 144 articles were included in the final analysis. 13 Gram negative and 5 Gram positive bacteria were tested against 37 different antibiotics. Penicillin resistance in Streptococcus pneumoniae was reported in 14/144studies (median resistance (MR): 26.7%). Further 18/53 (34.0%) of Haemophilus influenza isolates were resistant to amoxicillin. MR of Escherichia coli to amoxicillin, trimethoprim and gentamicin was 88.1%, 80.7% and 29.8% respectively. Ciprofloxacin resistance in Salmonella Typhi was rare. No documented ceftriaxone resistance in Neisseria gonorrhoeae was reported, while the MR for quinolone was 37.5%. Carbapenem resistance was common in Acinetobacter spp. and Pseudomonas aeruginosa but uncommon in Enterobacteriaceae.ConclusionOur review highlights three important findings. First, recent AMR data is not available for more than 40% of the countries. Second, the level of resistance to commonly prescribed antibiotics was significant. Third, the quality of microbiological data is of serious concern. Our findings underline that to conserve our current arsenal of antibiotics it is imperative to address the gaps in AMR diagnostic standardization and reporting and use available information to optimize treatment guidelines.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-017-2713-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Summary Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package—a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87–2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91–1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79–3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63–2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8–39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people...

There is scarcity of data on prevalence of neural tube defects (NTDs) in lower-income countries. Local data are important to understand the real burden of the problem and explore risk factors to design and implement preventive approaches. This study aimed to determine prevalence and risk factors of NTDs. A hospital-based cross-sectional and unmatched case-control study was conducted at three teaching hospitals of Addis Ababa University. NTDs were defined as cases of anencephaly, spina bifida, and encephalocele based on ICD-10 criteria. The prevalence of NTDs was calculated per 10,000 births for both birth and total prevalence. During seven months, we observed 55 cases of NTDs out of 8677 births after 28 weeks of gestation—birth prevalence of 63.4 per 10,000 births (95% confidence interval (CI), 51–77). A total of 115 cases were medically terminated after 12 weeks of gestation. Fifty-six of these terminations (48.7%) were due to NTDs. Thus, total prevalence of NTDs after 12 weeks' gestation is 126 per 10,000 births (95% CI, 100–150). Planned pregnancy (adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 0.47; 95% CI, 0.24–0.92), male sex (aOR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.33–0.94), normal or underweight body mass index (aOR, 0.49; 95%, 0.29–0.95), and taking folic acid or multivitamins during first trimester (aOR, 0.47; 95%, 0.23–0.95) were protective of NTDs. However, annual cash family income less than $1,300 USD (aOR, 2.5; 95%, 1.2–5.5), $1,300–1,800 USD (aOR, 2.8; 95%, 1.3–5.8), and $1,801–2,700 USD (aOR, 2.6; 95%, 1.2–5.8) was found to be risk factors compared to income greater than $2,700 USD. The prevalence of NTDs was found to be high in this setting. Comprehensive preventive strategies focused on identified risk factors should be urgently established. More studies on prevention strategies, including folic acid supplementations, should be conducted in the setting.

Acute fever is one of the most common presenting symptoms globally. In order to reduce the empiric use of antimicrobial drugs and improve outcomes, it is essential to improve diagnostic capabilities. In the absence of microbiology facilities in low-income settings, an assay to distinguish bacterial from non-bacterial causes would be a critical first step. To ensure that patient and market needs are met, the requirements of such a test should be specified in a target product profile (TPP). To identify minimal/optimal characteristics for a bacterial vs. non-bacterial fever test, experts from academia and international organizations with expertise in infectious diseases, diagnostic test development, laboratory medicine, global health, and health economics were convened. Proposed TPPs were reviewed by this working group, and consensus characteristics were defined. The working group defined non-severely ill, non-malaria infected children as the target population for the desired assay. To provide access to the most patients, the test should be deployable to community health centers and informal health settings, and staff should require <2 days of training to perform the assay. Further, given that the aim is to reduce inappropriate antimicrobial use as well as to deliver appropriate treatment for patients with bacterial infections, the group agreed on minimal diagnostic performance requirements of >90% and >80% for sensitivity and specificity, respectively. Other key characteristics, to account for the challenging environment at which the test is targeted, included: i) time-to-result <10 min (but maximally <2 hrs); ii) storage conditions at 0–40°C, ≤90% non-condensing humidity with a minimal shelf life of 12 months; iii) operational conditions of 5–40°C, ≤90% non-condensing humidity; and iv) minimal sample collection needs (50–100μL, capillary blood). This expert approach to define assay requirements for a bacterial vs. non-bacterial assay should guide product development, and enable targeted and timely efforts by industry partners and academic institutions.

ObjectivesKangaroo Mother Care (KMC), prolonged skin-to-skin care of the low birth weight baby with the mother plus exclusive breastfeeding reduces neonatal mortality. Global KMC coverage is low. This study was conducted to develop and evaluate context-adapted implementation models to achieve improved coverage.DesignThis study used mixed-methods applying implementation science to develop an adaptable strategy to improve implementation. Formative research informed the initial model which was refined in three iterative cycles. The models included three components: (1) maximising access to KMC-implementing facilities, (2) ensuring KMC initiation and maintenance in facilities and (3) supporting continuation at home postdischarge.Participants3804 infants of birth weight under 2000 g who survived the first 3 days, were available in the study area and whose mother resided in the study area.Main outcome measuresThe primary outcomes were coverage of KMC during the 24 hours prior to discharge and at 7 days postdischarge.ResultsKey barriers and solutions were identified for scaling up KMC. The resulting implementation model achieved high population-based coverage. KMC initiation reached 68%–86% of infants in Ethiopian sites and 87% in Indian sites. At discharge, KMC was provided to 68% of infants in Ethiopia and 55% in India. At 7 days postdischarge, KMC was provided to 53%–65% of infants in all sites, except Oromia (38%) and Karnataka (36%).ConclusionsThis study shows how high coverage of KMC can be achieved using context-adapted models based on implementation science. They were supported by government leadership, health workers’ conviction that KMC is the standard of care, women’s and families’ acceptance of KMC, and changes in infrastructure, policy, skills and practice.Trial registration numbersISRCTN12286667; CTRI/2017/07/008988; NCT03098069; NCT03419416; NCT03506698.

BackgroundFailure to timely diagnose and treat urinary tract infections is associated with grave long term consequences. The objectives of this study included assessing the proportion and predictors of Urinary Tract Infection (UTI) as a cause of pediatric outpatient department (OPD) visits and determining common uropathogens with antimicrobial susceptibility pattern.MethodsA cross sectional study was conducted from May to September 2015 among children of less than 15 years old at a tertiary center in Hawassa, Ethiopia. Children who fulfilled predefined eligibility criteria were recruited to undergo urine culture and urine analysis.ResultsA total of 863 children visited the OPD during the study period among which 269(31.2%) fulfilled the predefined eligibility criteria. Urine culture was positive for 74/269(27.5%) of the clinically suspected children. Male uncircumcision (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 3.70; 95% CI 1.34–10.16) and under nutrition (aOR 5.41; 95%CI 2.64–11.07) were independent predictors of culture positivity. More than 5 WBC per high power field (aOR 4.7, 95% CI 1.8–12.7) on microscopy, urine PH > 5.0 (aOR 2.6, 95%CI 1.2–5.8), and positive leukocyte esterase (aOR 9.9, 95%CI 4.1–25.7) independently predicted positive growth on urine culture. Escherichia coli (34/74, 45.9%) and Klebsiella spp (18/74, 24.3%) were the most frequent isolates. High resistance was noted against amoxicillin (70.6%) and cotrimoxazole (97.1%) by E. coli.ConclusionUTI accounted for a tenth of total OPD visits. Commonly used first line antibiotics showed high level resistance to common etiologies of UTI. UTI should be suspected in febrile children, and antibiograms should be done to tailor prescription of antibiotics.

BackgroundDisclosure of HIV positive status to children and adolescents is a complex process. However, disclosure has been found to be associated with improved outcomes. The objective of the current study was to identify the predictors that facilitate disclosure of HIV status to children and adolescents and to study the reasons for non-disclosure.MethodsInterviews of caregivers and reviews of records were done to collect data on caregiver and child information and details regarding the disclosure status of children. Bivariate analysis was done to test the association between HIV status disclosure and different caregiver and child factors. To identify the independent predictors of disclosure, we did multivariable logistic regression.ResultsA total of 177 children attending an HIV clinic were included. The mean age of the participants was 10.1 years (SD = 2.8), and about half (50.8%) were female. Most caregivers, 137 (77.8%) stated that disclosure of HIV status to children is important and should be done. However, disclosure had only been made to 59 (33.3%) of the participants. Child age more than 10 years [AOR = 6.7; 95%CI: 1.73–26.01], duration of HIV diagnosis of 5 years or more [AOR = 4.4; 95%CI: 1.26–15.06] and taking a zidovudin (AZT) based regimen [AOR = 3.5; 95%CI: 1.31–9.53] predicted HIV positive status disclosure. Additionally, length of treatment of caregivers of more than 14 years [AOR = 3.9; 95%CI: 1.07–14.61], disclosure of caregiver’s HIV status to children and/or others [AOR = 4.7; 95%CI: 1.19–18.74], and the child’s inquiry about their condition [AOR = 4.5; 95%CI: 1.16–17.43] increased the odds of disclosure.ConclusionThe rate of disclosure among HIV infected children in southern Ethiopia is low. Primarily time-based factors were associated with the probability of HIV positive status disclosure and a specific regimen which has not been found previously. Further qualitative research may elucidate more on these factors; educational strategies may address some of these determinants.