Talaromyces marneffei infection is commonly found in hospitalized HIV/AIDS patients in southern China and was associated with a higher mortality rate than most HIV-associated complications. These results highlight the need for improved diagnosis, treatment and prevention of infection by this neglected fungal pathogen in southern China.

BackgroundHepatitis is a serious public health problem with increasing cases and property damage in Heng County. It is necessary to develop a model to predict the hepatitis epidemic that could be useful for preventing this disease.MethodsThe autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the generalized regression neural network (GRNN) model were used to fit the incidence data from the Heng County CDC (Center for Disease Control and Prevention) from January 2005 to December 2012. Then, the ARIMA-GRNN hybrid model was developed. The incidence data from January 2013 to December 2013 were used to validate the models. Several parameters, including mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean square error (MSE), were used to compare the performance among the three models.ResultsThe morbidity of hepatitis from Jan 2005 to Dec 2012 has seasonal variation and slightly rising trend. The ARIMA(0,1,2)(1,1,1)12 model was the most appropriate one with the residual test showing a white noise sequence. The smoothing factor of the basic GRNN model and the combined model was 1.8 and 0.07, respectively. The four parameters of the hybrid model were lower than those of the two single models in the validation. The parameters values of the GRNN model were the lowest in the fitting of the three models.ConclusionsThe hybrid ARIMA-GRNN model showed better hepatitis incidence forecasting in Heng County than the single ARIMA model and the basic GRNN model. It is a potential decision-supportive tool for controlling hepatitis in Heng County.

Abstract:The HIV/AIDS data from the national surveillance systems of China and the United States from 1985 to 2014 were compared to characterize the HIV/AIDS epidemic in both countries. The current estimated national HIV prevalence rate in China and the United States are 0.0598% and 0.348%, respectively. In the United States, the annual number of new HIV infections has remained relatively stable (~50,000 each year) and has shown a downward trend in recent years. The Chinese national HIV prevalence is still low, and new HIV infections have been contained at a low level (50,000-100,000 each year). However, the epidemic has showed an increasing trend since 2012. By risk group, in both countries, men who have sex with men (MSM), heterosexual sex, and injection drug use (IDU) are the most common modes of transmission of new HIV infections. However, in the United States, MSM is the dominant transmission route, accounting for >60% of new infections; whereas in China, heterosexual sex has now become the dominant route, also accounting for >60% of new infections. A rapid increase in the proportion of HIV cases that were attributed to MSM and an obvious decrease in the proportion of HIV cases attributed to IDU in China in recent years imply that the China's epidemic is still evolving, to some extent, copying what was experienced in the United States. By age group, the proportions of HIV cases that were attributed to the age group 25-59 were comparable between the two countries. However, the United States had a higher proportion of cases that were attributed to age groups 15-19 and 20-24 than China, indicating that youth account for more infections in the United States. One other fact worth noting: in China there is a significant increase in the number of HIV new infections in individuals over 50 years of age, which results in much higher proportion of cases that were attributed to age groups 60-64 and over 65 in China than those in the United States. By race/ethnicity, in the United States, Blacks/African Americans continue to experience the most severe HIV burden, followed by Hispanics/Latinos. In China, no official data on race/ethnicity disparities are currently available. Thus, region, risk group, age are important factors in the HIV epidemics in both countries.

ObjectiveThis study aimed to investigate the prevalence of HIV late presentation and advanced HIV disease and to identify the factors associated with HIV late presentation and advanced HIV disease among patients with newly diagnosed HIV/AIDS in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, in Southwestern China.MethodsPatients with newly diagnosed HIV registered in the HIV surveillance system of Guangxi Centers for Disease Control between January 2012 and December 2016 were included in this study.ResultsOf 45,118 newly diagnosed patients, 70.2% had late presentation, and 45.1% had advanced HIV disease. A higher prevalence of late presentation and advanced HIV disease was found in male heterosexuals and female people who use drugs (PWID). Heterosexuals (OR 2.11 [95% CI 1.90–2.34]) and PWID (OR 1.55 [95% CI 1.30–1.84]) had a higher risk of late presentation than men who have sex with men (MSM). Blood testing of the blood receivers (OR 1.75 [95% CI 1.36–2.26]) and diagnosed in hospital (OR 1.74 [95% CI 1.65–1.84]) had an increased risk of late presentation compared to those who diagnosis in voluntary counseling and testing (VCT). Heterosexuals (OR 2.86 [95% CI 2.51–3.27]), PWID (OR 2.23 [95% CI 1.83–2.71]), blood testing of the blood receivers (OR 1.58 [95% CI 1.29–1.94]) and diagnosed in hospital (OR 1.85 [95% CI 1.76–1.94]) were also independent risk factors associated with advanced HIV disease. Older age, lower level of education and being divorced or widowed were also associated with late presentation and advanced HIV disease.ConclusionsLate presentation and advanced HIV disease were very common among patients with newly diagnosed HIV in Guangxi, China during 2012–2016. Targeted programs are urgently required to reduce HIV late diagnosis in Guangxi, especially for male heterosexuals, PWID, and patients with characteristics such as older age, lower level of education, divorced or widowed.

BackgroundNearly ten randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) have been completed or are ongoing worldwide to evaluate the effectiveness of PrEP in HIV transmission among HIV-uninfected high risk populations. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the role of PrEP to prevent HIV transmission through a Mata-analysis.MethodsA comprehensive computerized literature search was carried out in PubMed, EMbase, Ovid, Web of Science, Science Direct, Wan Fang, CNKI and related websites to collect relevant articles (from their establishment date to August 30, 2013). The search terms were “pre-exposure prophylaxis”, “high risk population”, “HIV infection”, “reduction”, “relative risk” and “efficacy”. We included any RCT assessing PrEP for the prevention of HIV infection in high risk populations. Interventions of the studies were continuously daily or intermittent doses of single or compound antiretrovirals (ARVs) before HIV exposure or during HIV exposure. A meta-analysis was conducted using Stata 10.0. A random-effects method was used to calculate the pooled relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for all studies included.ResultsSeven RCTs involving 14,804 individuals in high risk populations were eligible for this study. The number of subjects in the experimental groups was 8,195, with HIV infection rate of 2.03%. The number of subjects in the control groups was 6,609, with HIV infection rate of 4.07%. The pooled RR was 0.53 (95% CI = 0.40∼0.71, P<0.001). The re-analyzed pooled RR were 0.61 (95% CI = 0.48∼0.77, P<0.001), 0.49 (95% CI = 0.38∼0.63, P<0.001), respectively, by excluding the largest study or two studies without statistical significance. Publication bias analysis revealed a symmetry funnel plot. The fail-safe number was 1,022.ConclusionThese results show that PrEP is an effective strategy for reducing new HIV infections in high risk populations.