Drought is a prominent disaster in Chinese history. Analysing the spatial and temporal evolution laws of drought could provide decision supports for drought prevention and control. However, fewer studies were applied to investigate the long-term evolution rules of drought events on different spatial and temporal scales. In this paper, the spatio-temporal changes patterns of drought in China were analysed with geostatistical methods based on the 1470–2000a drought datasets in China, and then the possible future drought trend was predicted. Results showed that :(1) The drought risk in the northern region was the highest during the past 500 years. And, the drought intensity index showed an overall increasing trend with detail pattern of weakening->strengthening-> weakening-> strengthening; (2) The drought condition in the north was server than that in the south, but the drought trend in the south was significantly aggravated. (3) The drought gravity centres were mainly distributed in the north, but it showed a tendency to move southward. (4) From 1470 to 2000, the study area showed a significant drought enhancements, which was predicted to show an increasing trend of drought after 2000.
Analysing the temporal and spatial changes in regional rainfall erosivity can reveal the formation mechanism and succession process of water and soil loss. This is particularly relevant for ecologically fragile areas, such as the Tibetan Plateau. In this study, a gravity centre model, Hovmoller diagram, wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendall test, Rescale range analysis, and Daniel's trend test were used to analyse the spatial and temporal evolution pattern of rainfall erosivity on the Tibetan Plateau. The study used 0.25° spatial resolution data based on ERA5 correction from 1950-2020, which improved the spatial resolution and extended the time range of rainfall erosivity research on the Tibetan Plateau. The rainfall erosion in the southeast of the Tibetan Plateau was found to be severe and gradually decreased from the southeast to northwest. The average gravity centre of rainfall erosivity migrated from the southeast to the northwest. Regarding the time cycle, the average rainfall erosivity of the Tibetan Plateau changed rapidly each year, with an approximately 11-year cycle. Furthermore, the rainfall erosivity in the Tibetan Plateau showed a weak downward trend, which could continue to decrease in the future. Collectively, these results support regional ecological security and can help prepare prevention and control measures.
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