Hendra virus causes sporadic but typically fatal infection in horses and humans in eastern Australia. Fruit-bats of the genus Pteropus (commonly known as flying-foxes) are the natural host of the virus, and the putative source of infection in horses; infected horses are the source of human infection. Effective treatment is lacking in both horses and humans, and notwithstanding the recent availability of a vaccine for horses, exposure risk mitigation remains an important infection control strategy. This study sought to inform risk mitigation by identifying spatial and environmental risk factors for equine infection using multiple analytical approaches to investigate the relationship between plausible variables and reported Hendra virus infection in horses. Spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran’s I) showed significant clustering of equine cases at a distance of 40 km, a distance consistent with the foraging ‘footprint’ of a flying-fox roost, suggesting the latter as a biologically plausible basis for the clustering. Getis-Ord Gi* analysis identified multiple equine infection hot spots along the eastern Australia coast from far north Queensland to central New South Wales, with the largest extending for nearly 300 km from southern Queensland to northern New South Wales. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) showed the density of P. alecto and P. conspicillatus to have the strongest positive correlation with equine case locations, suggesting these species are more likely a source of infection of Hendra virus for horses than P. poliocephalus or P. scapulatus. The density of horses, climate variables and vegetation variables were not found to be a significant risk factors, but the residuals from the GWR suggest that additional unidentified risk factors exist at the property level. Further investigations and comparisons between case and control properties are needed to identify these local risk factors.
Flying-foxes (Pteropodidae) are large bats capable of long-distance flight. Many species are threatened; some are considered pests. Effective conservation and management of flying-foxes are constrained by lack of knowledge of their ecology, especially of movement patterns over large spatial scales. Using satellite telemetry, we quantified long-distance movements of the grey-headed flying-fox Pteropus poliocephalus among roost sites in eastern Australia. Fourteen adult males were tracked for 2–40 weeks (mean 25 weeks). Collectively, these individuals utilised 77 roost sites in an area spanning 1,075 km by 128 km. Movement patterns varied greatly between individuals, with some travelling long distances. Five individuals travelled cumulative distances >1,000 km over the study period. Five individuals showed net displacements >300 km during one month, including one movement of 500 km within 48 hours. Seasonal movements were consistent with facultative latitudinal migration in part of the population. Flying-foxes shifted roost sites frequently: 64% of roost visits lasted <5 consecutive days, although some individuals remained at one roost for several months. Modal 2-day distances between consecutive roosts were 21–50 km (mean 45 km, range 3–166 km). Of 13 individuals tracked for >12 weeks, 10 moved >100 km in one or more weeks. Median cumulative displacement distances over 1, 10 and 30 weeks were 0 km, 260 km and 821 km, respectively. On average, over increasing time-periods, one additional roost site was visited for each additional 100 km travelled. These findings explain why culling and relocation attempts have had limited success in resolving human-bat conflicts in Australia. Flying-foxes are highly mobile between camps and regularly travel long distances. Consequently, local control actions are likely to have only temporary effects on local flying-fox populations. Developing alternative methods to manage these conflicts remains an important challenge that should be informed by a better understanding of the species’ movement patterns.
Recent range shifts towards higher latitudes have been reported for many animals and plants in the northern hemisphere, and are commonly attributed to changes in climate. Relatively little is known about such changes in the southern hemisphere, although it has been suggested that latitudinal distributions of the fruit-bats Pteropus alecto and Pteropus poliocephalus changed during the 20th century in response to climate change in eastern Australia. However, historical changes in these species distributions have not been examined systematically. In this study we obtained historical locality records from a wide range of sources (including banding and museum records, government wildlife databases and unpublished records), and filtered them for reliability and spatial accuracy. The latitudinal distribution of each species was compared between eight time-periods (1843-1920, 1921-1950, five 10-year intervals between 1950 and 2000, and 2001-2007), using analyses of both the filtered point data (P. alecto 870 records, P. poliocephalus 2506) and presence/absence data within 50 ¥ 50 km grid cells. The results do not support the hypothesis that either species range is shifting in a manner driven by climate change. First, neither the northern or southern range limits of P. poliocephalus (Mackay, Queensland and Melbourne, Victoria respectively) changed over time. Second, P. alecto's range limit extended southward by 1168 km (approximately 10.5 degrees latitude) during the twentieth century (from approximately Rockhampton, Queensland to Sydney, New South Wales). Within this zone of southward expansion (25-29°S), the percentage of total records that were P. alecto increased from 8% prior to 1950 to 49% in the early 2000s, and local count data showed that its abundance increased from several hundred to more than 10 000 individuals at specific roost sites, as range expansion progressed. Pteropus alecto expanded southward at about 100 km/decade, compared with the 10-26 km/decade rate of isotherm change, and analyses of historical weather data show that the species consequently moved into recently-colder regions than it had previously occupied. Neither climate change nor habitat change could provide simple explanations to explain P. alecto's observed rapid range shift. More generally, climate change should not be uncritically inferred as a primary driver of species range shifts without careful quantitative analyses.
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