Risk and uncertainty have been extensively studied by agricultural economists. In this paper we question (a) the predominant use of static frameworks to formally analyse risk; (b) the predominant focus on risk aversion as the motivation for considering risk and (c) the notion that explicitly probabilistic models are likely to be helpful to farmers in their decision making. We pose the question: for a risk-averse farmer, what is the extra value of a recommendation derived from a model that represents risk aversion, compared to a model based on risk neutrality? The conclusion reached is that for the types of the decision problems most commonly modelled by agricultural economists, the extra value of representing risk aversion is commonly very little.

Understanding the patient perspective is fundamental to delivering patient-centred care. In most healthcare systems, however, patient-reported outcomes are not regularly collected or recorded as part of routine clinical care, despite evidence that doing so can have tangible clinical benefit. In the absence of the routine collection of these data, research is beginning to turn to social media as a novel means to capture the patient voice. Publicly available social media data can now be analysed with relative ease, bypassing many logistical hurdles associated with traditional approaches and allowing for accelerated and cost-effective data collection. Existing work has shown these data can offer credible insight into the patient experience, although more work is needed to understand limitations with respect to patient representativeness and nuances of captured experience. Nevertheless, linking social media to electronic medical records offers a significant opportunity for patient views to be systematically collected for health services research and ultimately to improve patient care.

IntroductionChronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a chronic, progressive disease that is not curable. However, there are effective treatments available. In the UK, long-acting bronchodilators are first-line treatments for COPD patients requiring maintenance therapy, and there are several options available. The aim of this study is to establish, from the UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective, the cost-effectiveness profile of indacaterol, the first once-daily long-acting beta2-agonist (LABA), compared with tiotropium and salmeterol, in patients with moderate to severe COPD. In assessing the cost-effectiveness of COPD therapies, this study has the advantage of using real world evidence on the resource use associated with COPD management across the spectrum of the disease.MethodsA Markov model was developed with four health states following the GOLD classification for severity of airflow limitation. The model time horizon was 3 years, and the cycle length was 3 months. From each state, patients could experience a severe or non-severe exacerbation, move to a different COPD state, remain in the current state or die. Transition probabilities were based on data from the indacaterol clinical trials. The majority of the resource use data was taken from the Optimum Patient Care Research Database (OPCRD), which contains data from over 20,000 COPD patients in England and Scotland. Cost data were taken from UK-based sources and published literature and presented for the cost year 2011. Health-related quality of life was the main outcome of interest and utility data for the COPD states were based on data from the indacaterol clinical trials and disutility due to exacerbations were taken from the literature. Both one way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of the results.ResultsIndacaterol dominated in the comparison with salmeterol producing an incremental QALY gain of 0.008 and cost savings of £110 per patient over a 3-year time horizon. In the comparison with tiotropium over the same time horizon, indacaterol remained the dominant strategy, producing an incremental QALY gain of 0.008 and cost savings of £248 per patient. The one-way sensitivity analysis indicates that the proportion of patients in each of the COPD stages and the mortality rate associated with Very Severe COPD are the variables with the largest impact on the results. The probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed that over 72 % and 89 % of the iterations when compared with salmeterol and tiotropium, respectively, produced dominant results for indacaterol.ConclusionThe analyses demonstrate that indacaterol dominates both tiotropium and salmeterol in the base case and is likely to remain cost-effective under a range of assumptions.

PurposeThe aim of this study was to evaluate the cost effectiveness of ranibizumab compared with verteporfin photodynamic therapy (vPDT) or no treatment (observation) in patients with visual impairment due to myopic choroidal neovascularization (CNV).MethodsA Markov model with health states defined by best-corrected visual acuity and a 3-month cycle length was developed. It had a healthcare provider (UK National Health Service and personal social services) perspective, a lifetime time horizon, and was based on 2011 prices; future costs and health outcomes were discounted at 3.5 % per annum. Baseline characteristics were based on the phase III RADIANCE (Ranibizumab and vPDT Evaluation in Myopic CNV) study, and year 1 health-state transitions were based on this and the VIP (Verteporfin in Photodynamic Therapy) study. Extensive sensitivity analyses tested the robustness of the model.ResultsThe lifetime cost of treating myopic CNV with ranibizumab was £12,866, whereas vPDT and observation were associated with total costs of £14,421 and £8,163, respectively. Ranibizumab treatment produced higher cumulative quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs; 12.99) than vPDT (12.60) or observation (12.45). Ranibizumab treatment was therefore dominant, with greater health gains and lower overall costs than vPDT. Ranibizumab was cost effective compared with observation, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £8,778/QALY. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, ranibizumab had a 100 % and 88 % probability of being cost effective compared with vPDT and observation, respectively, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000/QALY.ConclusionThis study indicates that ranibizumab therapy is dominant over vPDT for the treatment of visual impairment due to CNV secondary to pathologic myopia in the UK healthcare setting and cost effective compared with observation.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s40266-014-0216-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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