This research aims to present a deterministic and probabilistic analysis of the stability in 2D/3D of a road slope, located in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, in the Serra Pelada region, incorporating scenarios with and without surface suction and water level, and predict the movement of the mobilized-mass volume. The results of the stability analysis showed the variability of the safety factor, the probability of failure, and the mobilized-mass volume, in the twenty-six simulated scenarios. The results of the runout analysis of the mobilized-mass volume indicated that any possible landslide would interdict, at least, two of the three lanes of traffic, equivalent to 59.7% of the lanes. Therefore, it can be concluded that a 2D and 3D stability analysis combined with the material point method to predict the post-failure soil displacement provides a better understanding of all processes involved in a landslide, which helps to establish more adequate and effective mitigation and remedial measures for each situation. Finally, in conclusion, the studied slope, with a maximum failure probability of 1.24%, is safe in terms of its overall stability for all twenty-six simulated scenarios.
This research was developed with the purpose of presenting a deterministic and probabilistic assessment of the stability of slope located in state of São Paulo-Brazil, in the area denominated Serra Pelada, BR 116 PR/SP, with the incorporation of different suction scenarios in the unsaturated soil. The methodology was composed by 2D and 3D modelling of the slope, in the SoilVision’s SVSlope software, with the imposition of two water levels on the slope, one of 6.5 meters deep and another of 7.5 meters. The results demonstrate the variability of the probability of rupture, the safety factor, and the quantification of mobilized mass volume, in the six suction scenarios. As a result, it is possible to conclude with the analysis that the greater the surface suction in the unsaturated soil, the greater the safety factors of the slope and the lower the probability of rupture. It is also prudent to add that the incorporation of the variability of the geotechnical parameters in the probability analysis of stability, together with the 3D modelling of the slope, allow a more reliable analysis, presenting results of greater applicability in subsequent analyses. Finally, in conclusion, the studied slope is safe regarding its global stability for rupture.
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