analisar as componentes que contribuem para tal classificação, permitindo que governantes efetuem melhorias através de políticas públicas para minimizar os impactos e vulnerabilidades.
Entender a relação da vulnerabilidade social frente aos efeitos da mudança do clima é de suma importância no contexto da adaptação e mitigação dos impactos desta mudança. O objetivo deste estudo foi correlacionar a precipitação (mm) e as temperaturas (ºC) máxima e mínima dos estados do Sudeste brasileiro no período de 2010 a 2019 com o índice de vulnerabilidade social na região. Para isso, caracterizou-se a variabilidade climática da área de estudo, posteriormente relacionando-a com o Índice de Vulnerabilidade Social (IVS) por meio de uma correlação simples de Pearson (r). Os resultados mostraram que, em termos de vulnerabilidade a eventos climáticos, o Sudeste brasileiro é, em geral, mais sensível e suscetível aos danos ocasionados pelas chuvas em comparação aos impactos decorrentes da variação de temperatura na região; e, quanto à correlação entre a variabilidade climática e a vulnerabilidade social, identificou-se relação positiva (valores até +0,51) entre a variabilidade e as chuvas persistentes típicas do fenômeno Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul (ZCAS) - reiterando que a precipitação é uma variável meteorológica influente sobre a vulnerabilidade social no Sudeste e que a mudança global do clima pode influenciar negativamente o clima em escala regional e local e trazer danos à sociedade associados à sua resiliência e capacidade adaptativa.
Cities are increasingly vulnerable to climate change's impacts and poorly adapted to extreme variability. This study aimed to evaluate climate projections of air temperature and precipitation in seven cities in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo that correspond to the Greater ABC Paulista. We used high-resolution models Eta-HADGEM2_ES (CMIP5), CNRM-CM6-1-HR (CMIP6), and the TerraClimate database to analyze future projections and the specific warming levels (SWLs), respectively. Model data were validated with observed data and bias was removed. A bias correction factor was generated and used in the climate projections for the different emission scenarios. The results show a consensus between the models and the SWLs (2 and 4°C) for the increase in maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures for all municipalities in ABC Paulista in different emission scenarios until the end of the 21st century. For the nearest future (2020–2040), the city of São Caetano do Sul (SCS) shows the highest positive annual anomalies of Tmax concerning the climatological period (1985–2015), for the scenario RCP4.5 (2.8°C) and the RCP8.5 (7.4°C), according to projections from the Eta-HADGEM2_ES, highlighting summer and autumn as the hottest. For precipitation, there was a consensus between the Eta-HADGEM2_ES and the CNRM-CM6-1-HR for a reduction in all scenarios and time-slices 2020–2040 and 2041–2070. The municipalities of Diadema (−78.4%) and SCS (−78%) showed the most significant reductions in December for the RCP8.5, and for SSP5-8.5, SCS shows −30.9% in December for the 2020–2040 time-slice. On the other hand, TerraClimate presents excess rain for Ribeirão Pires (+24.8%) and Santo André (+23.7%) in winter for SWL4°C. These results suggest that an increase in Tmax and Tmin, as projected, should influence the intensity of extreme heat events. Furthermore, a reduction in annual and seasonal rainfall does not mean a decrease in the region's extreme daily events that cause floods and landslides. However, it leaves an alert of water scarcity for the supply and demand of the population. ABC Paulista does not have adaptation plans to face extreme climate change. The results can contribute to the first phase of creating an adaptation plan, giving a first view of the climate threat that should intensify until the end of the twentieth century affecting the most vulnerable municipalities.
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