This study focuses on the relation between stock price returns and oil price returns covering the COVID-19 period. This relation is examined for major net oil-importing Asian countries. Utilizing daily data, we fit a DCC-GARCH model. We find evidence of a positive co-movement between oil price returns and stock price returns during the COVID-19 period. This indicates that falling oil prices act as a negative signal for the stock market.Other recent studies related to COVID-19 and its impact on various economic factors include

This paper examines the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on dynamic correlations and volatility spillovers between stock prices and exchange rates in BRIICS economies. Using volatility modelling, we demonstrate significant negative dynamic correlations and volatility spillovers between stock and exchange returns in most of the BRIICS economies. Further, the relationship strengthened during the initial days of lockdowns. Our results pass the sensitivity analysis, and hence robust. Overall, our findings indicate that there have been significant risk transfers between the two markets, during the COVID-19 outbreak, which led to decline in domestic stock returns and subsequent capital outflows thereby increasing the exchange rates.

Purpose This paper aims to investigate whether the interest rate differentials Granger cause expected change in the exchange rate during the COVID-19 period. The study examines if the investors in the international assets and exchange rate markets take advantages of the relevant information obtained during the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach This paper used daily data ranging from January 31, 2020 to June 30, 2020 and considered BRIICS economies. The study implemented the Toda–Yamamoto’s Granger causality approach to identify the causality between interest rate differentials and exchange rates. For robustness checks, the study used ARLD short-run dynamics to infer causal relations. Findings Overall, the results indicate that the interest rate differentials improve the predictability of subsequent exchange rate changes in all six BRIICS economies during the COVID-19 period wherein investors are forward-looking. The empirical results pass the robustness checks. Originality/value There is a lack of studies exploring the relationship between interest rate differentials and exchange rates in the presence of an unanticipated event such as the current pandemic. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to explore the causal linkages between interest rate differentials and expected change in exchange rates, focusing on the COVID-19 outbreak period.

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This article provides an empirical investigation of the causal relationship between the current account (CA) and the capital account (KA) in the case of Indian economy. The results indicate the non-existence of causal relationship between the CA and the KA. Furthermore, we examine the causal relations between the components of the KA and the CA along with exchange rate as the linking factor between them. The causal findings, in the above mentioned case, show different results. Our finding suggests that there exist a causal relationship from Non debt flows to the CA via the real effective exchange rate. This implies that decomposition of the KA helps in identifying the source of flows that drives the CA the most. The results also indicates that volatile capital flows may deteriorate the CA balance and therefore, emphasis should be laid on improving the soundness of the financial sector before moving towards the full KA convertibility.3

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We examine the solvency of India's current account (CA) in the post-liberalization period using intertemporal optimization approach to the CA. Using quarterly data ranging from 1996Q1 to 2014Q2, we estimate a benchmark consumption-smoothing model and an extended model that incorporates external shocks. Overall, we find that the predicted optimal CA in both the models can track the actual CA movements and the extended model performs better over the benchmark model. Further, we also find that the optimal CA is more volatile than the actual CA which implies that the capital flows have been less than optimal and thus makes an interesting case for further liberalization of the capital account. Our findings suggest that policies aimed at further liberalization of capital flows will allow larger CA deficits to achieve higher economic growth since it will help agents to further smoothen their consumption without worrying about risks associated with insolvency.

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