The land use plans and policies of developed countries that live with the threat of earthquakes are gaining importance in reducing or eliminating the long-term threat to people and property. In developing countries, however, these plans and policies seem to increase the level of vulnerability. This paper examines the effects of the earthquakes that have occurred in Turkey since 1992, with a particular focus on urbanisation and planning policies. It is based on extensive surveys carried out on location immediately after the earthquakes in Erzincan and Kocaeli-Gölcük in 1992 and 1999, respectively . The analysis takes into account several factors, including the height of buildings, geological conditions and the construction period. The authors conclude that land use planning can serve as a very useful instrument for mitigating the extent of disaster damage if it is part of an appropriate planning system. In the case of Turkey, the planning system needs to be reorganised for this purpose.Keywords: earthquake, hazard mitigation, land use planning, vulnerability. IntroductionAlthough a wealth of scientific knowledge exists about the causes and effects of natural hazards, and technical methodology is well advanced for reducing their impacts, disasters continue to have devastating consequences, especially in developing countries. Between 1900 and 2004, 114 lethal earthquakes-1,000 or more deaths-resulted in a total of 2,071,253 officially reported deaths in at least 40 countries (USGS, 2004). Turkey was the site of 11% of these earthquakes and 3.5% of all related fatalities. Thirty-eight percent of earthquake-related deaths in Turkey have occurred since 1990.In developing nations, as well as in Turkey, a number of factors increase the amount of damage caused by earthquakes:• lack of political saliency; • uncoordinated and conflicting policies; • uncontrolled growth of cities and expansion of slums;• poor design and building techniques, and inadequate supervision of the construction process; • lack of enforcement of land use regulations; • a dearth of qualified technical personnel in less developed locations; and • financial constraints that limit the capacity to upgrade existing buildings and to utilise earthquake-specific construction technologies (Inyang et al., 2003;Degg, 1993). Hazard mitigation-which is an action taken to lower or eliminate the long-term risk to people and property (Godschalk, 2003)-involves measures that range from structural engineering and building code standards to land use planning and property acquisition (Schwab, 1998). Despite the fact that the 1968 regulations concerning specific building codes for high-risk areas were modified in 1975 and 1998, no significant reduction has been observed in the extent of the damage caused by earthquakes in Turkey. Thus the authors are inclined to conclude that the hazard mitigation issue should be treated as a problem of enforcement/application rather than one of regulation. The focus of this paper is, therefore, on integrating seismic safety elements in...

Empirical, theoretical or hybrid methods can be used for the vulnerability analysis of structures to evaluate the seismic damage data and to obtain probability damage matrices. The information on observed structural damage after earthquakes has critical importance to drive empirical vulnerability methods. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the damage distributions based on the data observed in Erzincan-1992, Dinar-1995 and Kocaeli-1999 earthquakes in Turkey utilizing two probability models-Modified Binomial Distribution (MBiD) and Modified Beta Distribution (MBeD). Based on these analyses, it was possible (a) to compare the advantages and limitations of the two probability models with respect to their capabilities in modelling the observed damage distributions; (b) to evaluate the damage assessment for reinforced concrete and masonry buildings in Turkey based on these models; (c) to model the damage distribution of different sub-groups such as buildings with different number of storeys or soil conditions according to the both models. The results indicate that (a) MBeD is more suitable than the MBiD to model the observed damage data for both reinforced concrete and masonry buildings in Turkey; (b) the sub-groups with lower number of stories are located in the lower intensity levels, while the sub-groups with higher number of stories depending on local site condition are concentrated in the higher intensity levels, thus site conditions should also be considered in the assessment of the intensity levels; (c) the detailed local models decrease the uncertainties of loss estimation since the damage distribution of subgroups can be more accurately modelled compared to the general damage distribution models.

Earthquake damages are assessed based on a holistic approach using structural as well as non-structural factors to model earthquake damage distributions with Decision Tree Techniques, using the Answer Tree program and the damage data from recent major earthquakes in Turkey. The damage dataset consists of approximately 9,400 buildings that were surveyed to evaluate the factors affecting building damage after Erzincan [1992], Dinar [1995], and Kocaeli [1999] earthquakes. The earthquake damage is defined as the dependent variable, while earthquake magnitude (M), intensity (I) in the city, peak ground acceleration (PGA) in each city, epicenter distance (ED), building types (BT), number of storeys (NS), presence of soft storey (SS), building position (BP) on the site, and site conditions (SC) are independent variables in the proposed model. The damage level (DL) was classified with respect to red, yellow, and green codes. The main purpose was (1) to identify the factors controlling building damage during earthquakes; (b) to determine the most significant factor; (c) to evaluate the effects of different factors for different earthquakes; (d) to develop damage distribution models for different subgroups based on the Decision Tree Techniques.

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The aim of the paper is to understand the spatial structure of development in Turkey in the context of socio-economic components and environmental change and to exhibit the interaction between these variables. Accordingly, using factor analysis and k-means cluster analysis with the contributionBu makalenin amacı, sosyo-ekolojik sistem (SES) yaklaşımı çer-çevesinde Türkiye'de gelişmenin sosyo-ekonomik bileşenleri ile çevresel değişimlerin mekânsal yapısını anlamak ve aralarındaki etkileşimi ortaya koymaktır. Bu doğrultuda, çeşitli çevresel, sosyal ve ekonomik göstergeler kullanılarak gerçekleştirilen Temel Bileşenler Analizi ve K-Ortalamalar Kümelenme Analizi yolu ile farklı coğrafi örüntüler saptanmış ve ortaya çıkan alt bölgeler-de SES bileşenleri endekslenerek çevresel değişimlerle sosyoekonomik yapı arasındaki etkileşim irdelenmiştir. Araştırma bulgularına göre, Türkiye'de gelişmiş olan metropoliten bölge ve çeperlerinin ekonomik ve beşeri sermaye güçleri giderek gö-receli olarak yavaşlamakta, buna karşın gelişmekte ve geri kalmış bölgelerde ise gelişme hızı metropollere göre daha hızlı artmaktadır. Bu saptamadan üç sonuç çıkartmak mümkündür: (1) Metropollerde gelişmenin çevre ve kaynaklar üzerinde yarattığı baskı eğiliminin devam etmesi halinde herhangi bir sürdürüle-bilirlikten söz etmek olanaksızlaşmaktadır, (2) gelişmekte olan bölgeler, büyüme eğiliminin devam etmesi halinde, kurumsalsosyal-fiziksel sermayenin katkısıyla sürdürülebilir gelişme potansiyeli taşımaktadır, (3) turizm kentlerinde kaynak kullanımı artış hızının düşmesi, beşeri ve ekonomik sermayenin gelişimi önem taşımakla beraber turizmin dayanağı olan doğal kaynakların bozulma eğilimi dengeli büyüme adına risk yaratmaktadır. MEGARON 2013;8(3):179-189 MAKALE / ARTICLE