Nocturnal tornadoes are a public health threat, over twice as likely to have fatalities as tornadoes during the day. While tornado warning receipt is an important factor in models of individual behavioral response, receipt of warnings at night has not been studied in the literature to date. This study uses survey data from a random sample of Tennessee residents (N = 1804) who were randomly assigned to day or night versions of a near-identical survey instrument. Bivariate and logistic regression analyses compare chance of warning receipt, warning sources, and predictors of warning receipt for day versus night scenarios of a tornadic event. Over 80% of participants asked about a daytime tornado said there was a high/very high chance of receiving the warning, compared to fewer than 50% of participants asked about a nighttime event. Whereas demographic and cognitive factors helped predict tornado warning receipt during the day, cognitive and geographic factors were salient for the night. Perceived county risk and prior experience with a tornado were positively associated with chance of nighttime receipt, while belief that luck is an important factor in surviving a tornado and living in east (compared to west) Tennessee were negatively associated. Future research should consider partnering with the National Weather Service, emergency managers, and local media to increase the likelihood that people will receive tornado warnings at night and to better understand the role that cognitive factors and particular beliefs play in individual efforts to ensure that warnings are received.
Tornadoes in the southeastern United States continue to cause substantial injury, death, and destruction. The present study seeks to 1) understand inadequate warning access, less understanding, and/or less likelihood of responding to tornado warnings; 2) examine public attitudes about NWS communications; and 3) explore the perceptions of NWS personnel regarding public response to tornado warnings, factors that might influence response, and how their perceptions impact their communication. Participants include a purposive sample of NWS forecasters in Tennessee (n = 11) and residents (n = 45) who were identified as having low access to, low knowledge of, or an unsafe response to tornado warnings in a previous study. A qualitative approach with semistructured interviews was used. Findings indicated that most participants had at least one warning source. Barriers to warning access included electricity outages, rurality, lack of storm radio, heavy sleeping, and hearing impairments. Most participants had knowledge of NWS guidelines for safe shelter seeking but still engaged in behaviors considered unsafe. Proximity, personal experience, and influence of family and friends emerged as influencers of response to warnings. NWS personnel perceived that proximity played a significant role in shelter-seeking behavior as well as the need for confirmation. Poor access to safe shelter arose as a major concern for NWS personnel, specifically mobile home residents. Messaging and specificity in warnings to evoke safe shelter-seeking behavior surfaced as critical issues for NWS personnel. Implications for education and policy changes to enhance public safety and improve public health are noted.
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