Background and objectives: Dialysis patients are increasingly characterized by older age, multiple comorbidities, and shortened life expectancy. This study investigated whether the "surprise" question, "Would I be surprised if this patient died in the next year?" identifies patients who are at high risk for early mortality.Design, setting, participants, & measurements: This prospective cohort study of 147 patients in three hemodialysis dialysis units classified patients into "yes" and "no" groups on the basis of the ؆surprise؆ question response and tracked patient status (alive or dead) at 12 mo. Demographics, Charlson Comorbidity Index score, and Karnofsky Performance Status score were measured.Results: Initially, 34 (23%) patients were classified in the "no" group. Compared with the 113 patients in the "yes" group, the patients in the "no" group were older (72.5 ؎ 12.8 versus 64.5 ؎ 14.9), had a higher comorbidity score (7.1 ؎ 2.3 versus 5.8 ؎ 2.1), and had a lower performance status score (69.7 ؎ 17.1 versus 81.6 ؎ 15.8). At 12 mo, 22 (15%) patients had died; the mortality rate for the "no" group was 29.4% and for the "yes" group was 10.6%. The odds of dying within 1 yr for the patients in the "no" group were 3.5 times higher than for patients in the "yes" group, (odds ratio 3.507, 95% CI 1.356 to 9.067, P ؍ 0.01).Conclusions: The ؆surprise؆ question is effective in identifying sicker dialysis patients who have a high risk for early mortality and should receive priority for palliative care interventions.
Background and objectives The calcimimetic cinacalcet reduced the risk of death or cardiovascular (CV) events in older, but not younger, patients with moderate to severe secondary hyperparathyroidism (HPT) who were receiving hemodialysis. To determine whether the lower risk in younger patients might be due to lower baseline CV risk and more frequent use of cointerventions that reduce parathyroid hormone (kidney transplantation, parathyroidectomy, and commercial cinacalcet use), this study examined the effects of cinacalcet in older ($65 years, n=1005) and younger (,65 years, n=2878) patients.Design, setting, participants, & measurements Evaluation of Cinacalcet HCl Therapy to Lower Cardiovascular Events (EVOLVE) was a global, multicenter, randomized placebo-controlled trial in 3883 prevalent patients on hemodialysis, whose outcomes included death, major CV events, and development of severe unremitting HPT. The age subgroup analysis was prespecified.Results Older patients had higher baseline prevalence of diabetes mellitus and CV comorbidity. Annualized rates of kidney transplantation and parathyroidectomy were .3-fold higher in younger relative to older patients and were more frequent in patients randomized to placebo. In older patients, the adjusted relative hazard (95% confidence interval) for the primary composite (CV) end point (cinacalcet versus placebo) was 0.70 (0.60 to 0.81); in younger patients, the relative hazard was 0.97 (0.86 to 1.09). Corresponding adjusted relative hazards for mortality were 0.68 (0.51 to 0.81) and 0.99 (0.86 to 1.13). Reduction in the risk of severe unremitting HPT was similar in both groups. ConclusionsIn the EVOLVE trial, cinacalcet decreased the risk of death and of major CV events in older, but not younger, patients with moderate to severe HPT who were receiving hemodialysis. Effect modification by age may be partly explained by differences in underlying CV risk and differential application of cointerventions that reduce parathyroid hormone.
Background: Peritoneal dialysis (PD) is a more cost-effective therapy to treat kidney failure than in-center hemodialysis, but successful therapy requires a functioning PD catheter that causes minimal complications. In 2015, the North American Chapter of the International Society for Peritoneal Dialysis established the North American PD Catheter Registry to improve practices and patient outcomes following PD catheter insertion. Aims: The objective of this study is to propose a methodology for defining insertion-related complications that lead to significant adverse events and report the risk of these complications among patients undergoing laparoscopic PD catheter insertion. Methods: Patients undergoing laparoscopic PD catheter insertion were enrolled at 14 participating centers in Canada and the United States and followed using a Web-based registry. Insertion-related complications were defined as flow restriction, exit-site leak, or abdominal pain at any point during follow-up. We also included infections or bleeding within 30 days of insertion, and any immediate postoperative complications. Adverse events were categorized as PD never starting or termination of PD therapy, delay in the start of PD therapy or interruption of PD therapy, an emergency department visit or hospitalization, or need for invasive procedures. Cause-specific cumulative incidence functions were used to estimate risk. Results: Five hundred patients underwent laparoscopic PD catheter insertion between 10 November 2015 and 24 July 2018. The cumulative risk of insertion-related complications 6 months from the date of insertion that led to an adverse event was 24%. The risk of flow restriction, exit-site leak, and pain at 6 months was 10.2%, 5.7%, and 5.3%, respectively. PD was never started or terminated in 6.4% of patients due to an insertion-related complication. Leaks and flow restrictions were most likely to delay or interrupt PD therapy. Flow restrictions were the primary cause of invasive procedures. Fifty percent of the complications occurred before the start of PD therapy. Conclusions: Insertion-related complications leading to significant adverse events following laparoscopic placement of PD catheters are common. Many complications occur before the start of PD. Insertion-related complications are an important area of focus for future research and quality improvement efforts.
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