This study presents an analysis of changes in the regional abundance of harbour seals Phoca vitulina based on repeated aerial surveys of haulouts, and demonstrates the use of sparse data to deliver advice about population status and management. Generalized linear models with negative binomial errors were used to represent these overdispersed data. The shape parameter of the negative binomial distribution was directly estimated from the data where this was possible. Information from time-series of counts where there were few gaps in the data was used to improve the estimation of this parameter in areas where fewer surveys had been carried out. The results show that the number of harbour seals in eastern England has not increased since the end of the 2002 phocine distemper epidemic. There is also evidence of a general decline in most of the large harbour seal colonies around Britain. The populations in the Inner Hebrides were an exception, with numbers appearing to be stable or increasing. Between 2001 and 2006, the population in Orkney and Shetland declined by 40% (95% confidence interval: 30-50%), indicating harbour seals in these areas experienced substantially increased mortality or very low recruitment over this period. The widespread declines, ranging from Shetland to The Wash, suggest that the causes may have been present over a large part of the North Sea.

Declines in large vertebrate populations are widespread but difficult to detect from monitoring data and hard to understand due to a multiplicity of plausible biological explanations. In parts of Scotland, harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) have been in decline for 10 years. To evaluate the contributions of different proximate causes (survival, fecundity, observation artefacts) to this decline, we collated behavioural, demographic and population data from one intensively studied population in part of the Moray Firth (north-east Scotland). To these, we fit a state-space model comprising age-structured dynamics and a detailed account of observation errors. After accounting for culling (estimated by our model as 14% of total mortality), the main driver of the historical population decline was a decreasing trend in survival of young individuals combined with (previously unrecognised) low levels of pupping success. In more recent years, the model provides evidence for considerable increases in breeding success and consistently high levels of adult survival. However, breeding success remains the most volatile demographic component of the population. Forecasts from the model indicate a slow population recovery, providing cautious support for recent management measures. Such investigations of the proximate causes of population change (survival, fecundity and observation errors) provide valuable short-term support for the management of population declines, helping to focus future data collection on those ultimate causal mechanisms that are not excluded by the demographic evidence. The contribution of specific ultimate drivers (e.g. shooting mortality or competitors) can also be quantified by including them as covariates to survival or fecundity.

Survival rates have rarely been estimated for pinniped populations due to the constraints of obtaining unbiased sample data. In this paper, we present an approach for estimating survival probabilities from individual recognition data in the form of photographic documentation of pelage patterns. This method was applied to estimate adult (age 2+) survival for harbour seals in the Moray Firth, NE Scotland. An astronomical telescope was used to obtain digital images of individual seals, and high-quality images were used to document the annual presence or absence of individuals at a single haul-out site over a 4-year period. A total of 95 females, 10 males and 57 individuals of unknown sex were photographically documented during the study period. Survival and recapture probabilities were estimated using Jolly-Seber mark-recapture models in a Bayesian statistical framework. Computer-intensive Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods were used to estimate the probability distributions for the survival and recapture probabilities, conveying the full extent of the uncertainty resulting from unavoidably sparse observational data. The deviance information criterion was used to identify a best-fitting model that accounted for variation in the probability of capture between sexes, with constant survival. The model estimated adult survival as 0.98 (95% probability interval of 0.94-1.00) using our photo-identification data alone, and 0.97 (0.92-0.99) with the use of an informative prior distribution based on previously published estimates of harbour seal survival. This paper represents the first survival estimate for harbour seals in the UK, and the first survival estimate using photo-identification data in any species of pinniped.

Conservation efforts are often constrained by uncertainty over the factors driving declines in marine mammal populations. In Scotland, there is concern over the potential impact of unrecorded shooting of seals, particularly where this occurs near Special Areas of Conservation. Here, we show that the abundance of harbour seals Phoca vitulina in the Moray Firth, north-east Scotland, declined by 2-5% per annum between 1993 and 2004. Records from local salmon fisheries and aquaculture sites indicated that 66-327 harbour seals were shot each year between 1994 and 2002. Matrix models and estimates of potential biological removal indicate that this level of shooting is sufficient to explain observed declines. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the number and identity of seals shot means that other factors such as changes in food availability may be contributing. Recent conservation measures markedly reduced the recorded levels of shooting in 2003 and 2004. In 2005, a coordinated management plan was developed to protect salmon fisheries interests while minimizing impacts on local seal populations. Comprehensive monitoring of future population trends and improved regulation of culls are now required to provide more robust assessments of the impact of human persecution on harbour seal populations in the Moray Firth and in other parts of the UK.

There have been marked declines of UK harbour seal populations over at least the last decade. Protected areas, such as Special Areas of Conservation (SACs), provide one tool to improve the conservation status of these populations. However, the design and management of SACs is often limited by a lack of information on long-term patterns in the use of seal haul-out sites and foraging areas. The Moray Firth is the only UK region where long-term harbour seal population studies have been conducted in parallel with detailed studies of foraging ecology. We used this opportunity to investigate changes in the use of haul-out sites and foraging areas within two adjacent estuaries, where annual haulout counts were made over a 20-year period. In 1988, 499% of seals and all mother-pup pairs were located at haul-out sites within an area that was subsequently designated as a SAC to protect harbour seals. In addition to previously reported declines in this area, we detected a shift in haul-out distribution resulting from the development of a new pupping site that, by 2008, held 37% of mother pup pairs in the area. Foraging areas of breeding females were compared in 1989 and 2009 using a combination of VHF and GPS-GSM telemetry, confirming that females foraged in broadly similar areas in both periods. This suggests that the development of this new pupping site was not driven by the need to forage further offshore, but instead was more likely due to local variation in haul-out site characteristics. These results are discussed in relation to potential drivers of haulout site choice and the need to develop a broader suite of measures for managing habitat quality within this and other SACs for harbour seals.

The development of age determination methods in marine mammals is reviewed with particular reference to the use of teeth Growth Layer Groups (GLGs) formed in the dentine and cement of carnivores. Using this background, practices for sampling, tooth extraction and collection, storage and different methods of preparation of teeth as well as reading and counting GLGs are discussed and evaluated for the harbour seal (Phoca vitulina). The paper includes comments on best practices for counting GLGs with new examples from known-age seals, and also a detailed examination of confounding factors in interpreting GLGs such as mineralization anomalies and the phenomena of accessory lines, "false annuli" and "paired laminae" which have not been discussed previously. The paper concludes with recommendations for undertaking age estimation in harbour seals from sampling through final GLG interpretation with special emphasis on standardization of methods with other researchers.Lockyer, C., Mackey, B., Read, F., Härkönen, T. and Hasselmeier, I. 2010. Age determination methods in harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) with a review of methods applicable to carnivores. NAMMCO

Mediterranean monk seals Monachus monachus are classified as Critically Endangered on the IUCN Red List, with < 600 individuals split into 3 isolated sub-populations, the largest in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Canine teeth collected during the last 2 decades from 45 dead monk seals inhabiting Greek waters were processed for age estimation. Ages were best estimated by counting growth layer groups (GLGs) in the cementum adjacent to the root tip using unprocessed longitudinal or transverse sections (360 µm thickness) observed under polarized light. Decalcified and stained thin sections (8 to 23 µm) of both cementum and dentine were inferior to unprocessed sections. From analysing patterns of deposition in the cementum of known agematurity class individuals, one GLG was found to be deposited annually in M. monachus. Ages ranged from 0.5 to 36 yr for females, 0.5 to 21 yr for males and 0.5 to 25.5 yr for individuals of unknown sex. The majority of seals (65%) were considered adults (≥4 yr), followed by juveniles (20%, <1 yr) and sub-adults (15%, 1−3.9 yr). Thirty percent of the aged sample had died from human-related causes, such as accidental entanglement in fishing gear and direct killings. A single-Gompertz growth curve was generated for both sexes using standard length data, resulting in asymptotic values of 212.3 cm for females and 221.8 cm for males. This study represents the first quantitative glimpse of sex-specific growth in monk seals and the age structure of dead individuals in this rare species' core range.KEY WORDS: Mediterranean monk seal · Monachus monachus · Teeth · Age estimation · Growth layer groups · Mortality · Endangered species · Conservation Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher 157 Editorial responsibility:

1. The abundance of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) in the UK as a whole has increased over the past 10 years, after a 30% decline during the preceding 10 years and two major viral epidemics. However, population trends vary greatly among regions, with those on the east coast of Scotland and in the Northern Isles experiencing dramatic declines since the early 2000s and populations on the west coast being either stable or increasing. The reasons for these differences in population dynamics are unknown.2. Determining whether there has been a change in somatic growth among populations can assist in assessing potential causes for abundance declines, as shifts in juvenile growth rates or maximum length at maturity may indicate changes in environmental conditions. Resource limitations are likely to result in slower growth and later age at sexual maturity, whereas causes of acute mortality could have the opposite effect.3. Here, analysis of the most comprehensive length-at-age dataset for UK harbour seals found no evidence for major differences, or changes over time, in asymptotic length or growth parameters from fitted von Bertalanffy growth curves, across all regions, with the exception of one pairwise comparison; males from East Scotland were significantly shorter than males from all other areas by an average of almost 9 cm. However, the power to detect small changes was limited by measurement uncertainty and differences in spatial and temporal sampling effort. 4. Asymptotic lengths at maturity across all regions were slightly lower than published lengths for harbour seal populations in Europe, the Arctic, and Canada, with females being on average 140.5 cm (95% confidence interval 139.4, 141.6 cm) and males 149.4 cm (95% confidence interval 147.8, 151.1 cm) at adulthood. 5. Reliable estimates of changes in growth over time are important for understanding environmental constraints on a population, but knowledge of the underlying drivers of change is essential for the design of robust conservation and mitigation plans.