The process of making judgments and decisions requires a method for combining data. To compare the accuracy of clinical and mechanical (formal, statistical) data-combination techniques, we performed a meta-analysis on studies of human health and behavior. On average, mechanical-prediction techniques were about 10% more accurate than clinical predictions. Depending on the specific analysis, mechanical prediction substantially outperformed clinical prediction in 33%-47% of studies examined. Although clinical predictions were often as accurate as mechanical predictions, in only a few studies (6%-16%) were they substantially more accurate. Superiority for mechanical-prediction techniques was consistent, regardless of the judgment task, type of judges, judges' amounts of experience, or the types of data being combined. Clinical predictions performed relatively less well when predictors included clinical interview data. These data indicate that mechanical predictions of human behaviors are equal or superior to clinical prediction methods for a wide range of circumstances.

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Cognitive deficits may index genetic liability for schizophrenia and are candidate endophenotypes for the illness. In order to compare the degree of sensitivity among cognitive tasks to group differences between healthy relatives and controls and the influence of moderator variables, this review reports mean effect sizes for 43 cognitive test scores from 58 studies of cognitive performance in the unaffected adult relatives of schizophrenia patients. Results indicate reliable relative-control differences, in the small to medium effect size range, over a diverse array of tasks, with the largest effect sizes seen in complex versions of continuous performance tasks, auditory verbal learning, design copy tests, and category fluency. Three study design features were found to have significant effects on overall effect size magnitude: groups unmatched on education, groups unmatched on age, and asymmetric psychiatric exclusion criteria. After excluding studies with the latter 2 design features, reliable performance differences were still observed over a smaller subset of cognitive test variables, with the largest effect sizes seen in Trails B (d = 0.50) and performance measures from both simple (d = 0.56) and complex (d = 0.60-0.66) versions of continuous performance tasks. Four of the 6 largest effect sizes reflect tasks with high executive control demands in common, such as working memory demands, set shifting, and inhibition of prepotent responses. Cognitive deficits, particularly those tapping such executive control functions, should continue to prove valuable as endophenotypes of interest in the search for specific genetic factors related to schizophrenia.

INTRODUCTION Subjective Cognitive Decline (SCD) manifesting prior to clinical impairment could serve as a target population for early intervention trials in Alzheimer’s disease (AD). A working group, the Subjective Cognitive Decline Initiative (SCD-I), published SCD research criteria in the context of preclinical AD. To successfully apply them, a number of issues regarding assessment and implementation of SCD needed to be addressed. METHODS Members of the SCD-I met to identify and agree upon topics relevant to SCD criteria operationalization in research settings. Initial ideas and recommendations were discussed with other SCD-I working group members and modified accordingly. RESULTS Topics included SCD inclusion and exclusion criteria, together with the informant’s role in defining SCD presence and the impact of demographic factors. DISCUSSION Recommendations for the operationalization of SCD in differing research settings, with the aim of harmonization of SCD measurement across studies are proposed, to enhance comparability and generalizability across studies.

The amyloid cascade hypothesis suggests that the aggregation and deposition of amyloid-␤ protein is an initiating event in Alzheimer's disease (AD). Using amyloid imaging technology, such as the positron emission tomography (PET) agent Pittsburgh compound-B (PiB), it is possible to explore the natural history of preclinical amyloid deposition in people at high risk for AD. With this goal in mind, asymptomatic (n ϭ 5) and symptomatic (n ϭ 5) carriers of presenilin-1 (PS1) mutations (C410Y or A426P) that lead to early-onset AD and noncarrier controls from both kindreds (n ϭ 2) were studied with PiB-PET imaging and compared with sporadic AD subjects (n ϭ 12) and controls from the general population (n ϭ 18). We found intense and focal PiB retention in the striatum of all 10 PS1 mutation carriers studied (ages 35-49 years). In most PS1 mutation carriers, there also were increases in PiB retention compared with controls in cortical brain areas, but these increases were not as great as those observed in sporadic AD subjects. The two PS1 mutation carriers with a clinical diagnosis of early-onset AD did not show the typical regional pattern of PiB retention observed in sporadic AD. Postmortem evaluation of tissue from two parents of PS1C410Y subjects in this study confirmed extensive striatal amyloid deposition, along with typical cortical deposition. The early, focal striatal amyloid deposition observed in these PS1 mutation carriers is often is not associated with clinical symptoms.

Context Ginkgo biloba is widely used for its potential effects on memory and cognition. To date, adequately powered clinical trials testing the effect of G biloba on dementia incidence are lacking. Objective To determine effectiveness of G biloba vs placebo in reducing the incidence of all-cause dementia and Alzheimer disease (AD) in elderly individuals with normal cognition and those with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Design, Setting, and Participants Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial conducted in 5 academic medical centers in the United States between 2000 and 2008 with a median follow-up of 6.1 years. Three thousand sixty-nine community volunteers aged 75 years or older with normal cognition (n=2587) or MCI (n=482) at study entry were assessed every 6 months for incident dementia. Intervention Twice-daily dose of 120-mg extract of G biloba (n=1545) or placebo (n=1524). Main Outcome Measures Incident dementia and AD determined by expert panel consensus. Results Five hundred twenty-three individuals developed dementia (246 receiving placebo and 277 receiving G biloba) with 92% of the dementia cases classified as possible or probable AD, or AD with evidence of vascular disease of the brain. Rates of dropout and loss to follow-up were low (6.3%), and the adverse effect profiles were similar for both groups. The overall dementia rate was 3.3 per 100 person-years in participants assigned to G biloba and 2.9 per 100 person-years in the placebo group. The hazard ratio (HR) for G biloba compared with placebo for all-cause dementia was 1.12 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.94–1.33; P=.21) and for AD, 1.16 (95% CI, 0.97–1.39; P=.11). G biloba also had no effect on the rate of progression to dementia in participants with MCI (HR, 1.13; 95% CI, 0.85–1.50; P=.39). Conclusions In this study, G biloba at 120 mg twice a day was not effective in reducing either the overall incidence rate of dementia or AD incidence in elderly individuals with normal cognition or those with MCI.

Research increasingly suggests that subjective cognitive decline (SCD) in older adults, in the absence of objective cognitive dysfunction or depression, may be a harbinger of non-normative cognitive decline and eventual progression to dementia. Little is known, however, about the key features of self-report measures currently used to assess SCD. The Subjective Cognitive Decline Initiative (SCD-I) Working Group is an international consortium established to develop a conceptual framework and research criteria for SCD (Jessen et al., 2014, Alzheimers Dement 10, 844–852). In the current study we systematically compared cognitive self-report items used by 19 SCD-I Working Group studies, representing 8 countries and 5 languages. We identified 34 self-report measures comprising 640 cognitive self-report items. There was little overlap among measures—approximately 75% of measures were used by only one study. Wide variation existed in response options and item content. Items pertaining to the memory domain predominated, accounting for about 60% of items surveyed, followed by executive function and attention, with 16% and 11% of the items, respectively. Items relating to memory for the names of people and the placement of common objects were represented on the greatest percentage of measures (56% each). Working group members reported that instrument selection decisions were often based on practical considerations beyond the study of SCD specifically, such as availability and brevity of measures. Results document the heterogeneity of approaches across studies to the emerging construct of SCD. We offer preliminary recommendations for instrument selection and future research directions including identifying items and measure formats associated with important clinical outcomes.

Objective We utilized the amyloid imaging ligand Pittsburgh Compound-B (PiB) to determine the presence of AD pathology in different MCI subtypes and to relate elevated PiB binding to other markers of early AD and longitudinal outcome. Methods Twenty-six patients with MCI – 13 single domain amnestic-MCI (sd a-MCI), 6 multiple domain amnestic-MCI (md a-MCI), and 7 non-amnestic MCI (na-MCI) – underwent PiB imaging. Twenty-three had clinical follow-up [21.2 ± 16.0 (SD) months] subsequent to their PiB scan. Results Using cutoffs established from a control cohort, 14 (54%) had elevated levels of PiB retention and were considered “amyloid-positive.” All subtypes were associated with a significant proportion of amyloid-positive patients (6/13 sd a-MCI, 5/6 md a-MCI, 3/7 na-MCI). There were no obvious differences in the distribution of PiB retention in the na-MCI group despite their atypical early AD phenotype. Predictors of conversion to clinical AD in a-MCI, including poorer episodic memory, increased age, and medial temporal atrophy, were found in the amyloid-positive relative to amyloid-negative a-MCI patients. Longitudinal follow-up revealed 5/13 amyloid-positive patients, but 0/10 amyloid-negative patients, converted to clinical AD. Further, 3/10 amyloid-negative patients “reverted to normal” on follow-up. Interpretation These data support the notion that amyloid-positive patients are likely to have early AD and that the use of amyloid imaging may have an important role in determining which patients are likely to benefit from disease-specific therapies. In addition, our data is consistent with longitudinal studies suggesting that a significant percentage of all MCI subtypes will develop clinical AD.