By April 7th, 2020, the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has infected one and a half million people worldwide, accounting for over 80 thousand of deaths in 209 countries and territories around the world. The new and fast dynamics of the pandemic are challenging the health systems of different countries. In the absence of vaccines or effective treatments, mitigation policies, such as social isolation and lock-down of cities, have been adopted, but the results vary among different countries. Some countries were able to control the disease at the moment, as is the case of South Korea. Others, like Italy, are now experiencing the peak of the pandemic. Finally, countries with emerging economies and social issues, like Brazil, are in the initial phase of the pandemic. In this work, we use mathematical models with time-dependent coefficients, techniques of inverse and forward uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis to characterize essential aspects of the COVID-19 in the three countries mentioned above. The model parameters estimated for South Korea revealed effective social distancing and isolation policies, border control, and a high number in the percentage of reported cases. In contrast, underreporting of cases was estimated to be very high in Brazil and Italy. In addition, the model estimated a poor isolation policy at the moment in Brazil, with a reduction of contact around 40%, whereas Italy and South Korea estimated numbers for contact reduction are at 75% and 90%, respectively. This characterization of the COVID-19, in these different countries under different scenarios and phases of the pandemic, supports the importance of mitigation policies, such as social distancing. In addition, it raises serious concerns for socially and economically fragile countries, where underreporting poses additional challenges to the management of the COVID-19 pandemic by significantly increasing the uncertainties regarding its dynamics.

Patient-specific computer simulations can be a powerful tool in clinical applications, helping in diagnostics and the development of new treatments. However, its practical use depends on the reliability of the models. The construction of cardiac simulations involves several steps with inherent uncertainties, including model parameters, the generation of personalized geometry and fibre orientation assignment, which are semi-manual processes subject to errors. Thus, it is important to quantify how these uncertainties impact model predictions. The present work performs uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analyses to assess the variability in important quantities of interest (QoI). Clinical quantities are analysed in terms of overall variability and to identify which parameters are the major contributors. The analyses are performed for simulations of the left ventricle function during the entire cardiac cycle. Uncertainties are incorporated in several model parameters, including regional wall thickness, fibre orientation, passive material parameters, active stress and the circulatory model. The results show that the QoI are very sensitive to active stress, wall thickness and fibre direction, where ejection fraction and ventricular torsion are the most impacted outputs. Thus, to improve the precision of models of cardiac mechanics, new methods should be considered to decrease uncertainties associated with geometrical reconstruction, estimation of active stress and of fibre orientation. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation’.

Ectopic beats are known to be involved in the initiation of a variety of cardiac arrhythmias. Although their location may vary, ectopic excitations have been found to originate from infarct areas, regions of micro-fibrosis and other heterogeneous tissues. However, the underlying mechanisms that link ectopic foci to heterogeneous tissues have yet to be fully understood. In this work, we investigate the mechanism of micro-reentry that leads to the generation of ectopic beats near infarct areas using a patient-specific heart model. The patient-specific geometrical model of the heart, including scar and peri-infarct zones, is obtained through magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). The infarct region is composed of ischemic myocytes and non-conducting cells (fibrosis, for instance). Electrophysiology is captured using an established cardiac myocyte model of the human ventricle modified to describe ischemia. The simulation results clearly reveal that ectopic beats emerge from micro-reentries that are sustained by the heterogeneous structure of the infarct regions. Because microscopic information about the heterogeneous structure of the infarct regions is not available, Monte-Carlo simulations are used to identify the probabilities of an infarct region to behave as an ectopic focus for different levels of ischemia and different percentages of non-conducting cells. From the proposed model, it is observed that ectopic beats are generated when a percentage of non-conducting cells is near a topological metric known as the percolation threshold. Although the mechanism for micro-reentries was proposed half a century ago to be a source of ectopic beats or premature ventricular contractions during myocardial infarction, the present study is the first to reproduce this mechanism in-silico using patient-specific data.

Mechanical deformation affects the electrical activity of the heart through multiple feedback loops. The purpose of this work is to study the effect of deformation on transmural dispersion of repolarization and on surface electrograms using an in silico human ventricular wedge. To achieve this purpose, we developed a strongly coupled electromechanical cell model by coupling a human left ventricle electrophysiology model and an active contraction model reparameterized for human cells. This model was then embedded in tissue simulations on the basis of bidomain equations and nonlinear solid mechanics. The coupled model was used to evaluate effects of mechanical deformation on important features of repolarization and electrograms. Our results indicate an increase in the T-wave amplitude of the surface electrograms in simulations that account for the effects of cardiac deformation. This increased T-wave amplitude can be explained by changes to the coupling between neighboring myocytes, also known as electrotonic effect. The thickening of the ventricular wall during repolarization contributes to the decoupling of cells in the transmural direction, enhancing action potential heterogeneity and increasing both transmural repolarization dispersion and T-wave amplitude of surface electrograms. The simulations suggest that a considerable percentage of the T-wave amplitude (15%) may be related to cardiac deformation.