Land use change and human population growth are accelerating the fragmentation and insularization of wildlife habitats worldwide. The conservation and management of wildlife in the resultant 'island' ecosystems in the context of global warming is challenging due to the isolation and reduced size of the ecosystems and hence the scale over which ecosystem processes can operate. We analyzed trends in numbers of nine large herbivores in Kenya's Lake Nakuru National Park to understand how rainfall and temperature variability, surrounding land use changes, and boundary fencing affected wildlife population dynamics inside the park during 1970-2011. Buffalo, zebra and Thomson's gazelle numbers increased persistently. Grant's gazelle and impala increased initially then gradually declined. Waterbuck and warthog numbers progressively declined to levels that potentially threatened their local population persistence. The total biomass of ungulates tripled from 1970 to 2011, with buffalo replacing waterbuck as the predominant species in biomass. Increased competition from buffalo and zebra, heightened predation and illicit human harvests probably all contributed to the declines by waterbuck and warthog.Density-dependent limitation of population growth within the park confines was evident for buffalo, impala, eland, giraffe, Grant's and Thomson's gazelles. Fluctuations in the lake level related to varying rainfall affected changes in animal abundance through expansion of the lake area and flooding of grasslands bordering the lake. Unusually, the most stressful conditions were associated with high water levels following high rainfall. There was also evidence of carry-over effects from prior habitat conditions affecting all species. The relatively stable populations of all species except warthog and waterbuck demonstrate the remarkable capacity of this small, insularized park to retain viable populations of most of the large herbivores, without much management intervention.

Wildlife conservation is facing numerous and mounting challenges on private and communal lands in Africa, including in Kenya. We analyze the population dynamics of 44 common wildlife species in relation to rainfall variation in the Nakuru Wildlife Conservancy (NWC), located in the Nakuru-Naivasha region of Kenya, based on ground total counts carried out twice each year from March 1996 to May 2015. Rainfall in the region was quasi-periodic with cycle periods dependent on the rainfall component and varying from 2.8 years for the dry season to 10.9 years for the wet season. These oscillations are associated with frequent severe droughts and food scarcity for herbivores. The trends for the 44 wildlife species showed five general patterns during 1996–2015. 1) Steinbuck, bushbuck, hartebeest and greater kudu numbers declined persistently and significantly throughout 1996–2015 and thus merit the greatest conservation attention. 2) Klipspringer, mongoose, oribi, porcupine, cheetah, leopard, ostrich and Sykes monkey numbers also decreased noticeably but not significantly between 1996 and 2015. 3) Dik dik, eland, African hare, Jackal, duiker, hippo and Thomson’s gazelle numbers first increased and then declined between 1996 and 2015 but only significantly for duiker and hippo. 4) Aardvark, serval cat, colobus monkey, bat-eared fox, reedbuck, hyena and baboon numbers first declined and then increased but only the increases in reedbuck and baboon numbers were significant. 5) Grant’s gazelle, Grevy’s zebra, lion, spring hare, Burchell’s zebra, bushpig, white rhino, rock hyrax, topi, oryx, vervet monkey, guinea fowl, giraffe, and wildebeest numbers increased consistently between 1996 and 2015. The increase was significant only for rock hyrax, topi, vervet monkey, guinea fowl, giraffe and wildebeest. 6) Impala, buffalo, warthog, and waterbuck, numbers increased significantly and then seemed to level off between 1996 and 2015. The aggregate biomass of primates and carnivores increased overall whereas that of herbivores first increased from 1996 to 2006 and then levelled off thereafter. Aggregate herbivore biomass increased linearly with increasing cumulative wet season rainfall. The densities of the 30 most abundant species were either strongly positively or negatively correlated with cumulative past rainfall, most commonly with the early wet season component. The collaborative wildlife conservation and management initiatives undertaken on the mosaic of private, communal and public lands were thus associated with increase or no decrease in numbers of 32 and decrease in numbers of 12 of the 44 species. Despite the decline by some species, effective community-based conservation is central to the future of wildlife in the NWC and other rangelands of Kenya and beyond and is crucially dependent on the good will, effective engagement and collective action of local communities, working in partnerships with various organizations, which, in NWC, operated under the umbrella of the Nakuru Wildlife Forum.

Effective conservation management is underpinned by science. Yet, there are often barriers against the incorporation of up-to-date scientific research into decision-making and policy. Here, we draw on experience from a multi-nation approach to conserve cheetah and African wild dogs across Africa, using relationships between scientists and managers established over more than a decade, to better understand scientific information needs of managers. While our analysis focuses on Africa, many of our findings are likely to be relevant to other regions. Managers view science as critical to their decision-making processes and strongly support scientific research, particularly when research directly addresses their information needs. However, managers reported problems in accessing final results and highlighted the need to access raw ecological data from research undertaken within protected areas. Fundamental to improving the management relevance of scientific research is the need for scientists to engage with managers through all steps of the research process, from project design and implementation through to scientific publication and end-of-project agreements. Effective engagement requires open and clear communication; including agreed processes for access to biodiversity data and submission of final results. In order to foster future scientific endeavours and collaborations, systems should be established to better facilitate information exchange, while also safeguarding the rights of scientists to publish their data and protect their academic freedom. Our analysis also calls for a greater awareness of the geo-political context under which science is undertaken, and for increased scientific participation through an inclusive approach that recognizes, and gives credit to, a wider diversity of scientific contributions and expertise. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Linking behaviour to dynamics of populations and communities: application of novel approaches in behavioural ecology to conservation’.

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