Purpose
In this study we sought to: (1) objectively assess the risk related to various pre-transplant recipient and donor characteristics; (2) devise a preoperative risk stratification score (RSS) based on pre-transplant recipient and donor characteristics predicting graft loss at 1-year; and (3) define different risk strata based on RSS.
Methods
UNOS provided de-identified patient-level data. Analysis included 11,703 orthotopic heart transplant recipients aged ≥ 18 years and transplanted between 1/1/01-12/31/07. The primary outcome was 1-year graft failure. Multivariable logistic regression analysis (backward p-value < 0.20) was used to determine the relationship between pre-transplant characteristics and 1-year graft failure. Using the odds ratio for each identified variable, a RSS was devised. RSS strata were defined by calculating ROC curves and stratum specific likelihood ratios.
Results
The strongest negative predictors of 1-year graft failure included: RVAD-only, ECMO, renal failure, extracorporeal LVAD, total artificial heart, and advanced age. Threshold analysis identified five discrete RSS strata: low risk (LR, RSS: <2.55; n=3242, 27.7%), intermediate risk (IR, RSS: 2.55-5.72; n=6347, 54.2%), moderate risk (MR, RSS: 5.73-8.13; n=1543, 13.2%), elevated risk (ER, RSS: 8.14-9.48; n=310, 2.6%), and high risk (HR, RSS: >9.48; n=261, 2.2%). The 1-year actuarial survival (%) in the LR, IR, MR, ER, and HR groups were 93.8, 89.2, 81.3, 67.0, and 47.0, respectively.
Conclusion
Pre-transplant recipient variables significantly influence early and late graft failure following heart transplantation. RSS may improve organ allocation strategies by reducing the potential negative impact of transplanting candidates who are at a high risk for poor postoperative outcomes.