Background COVID-19 has spread to 6 continents. Now is opportune to gain a deeper understanding of what may have happened. The findings can help inform mitigation strategies in the disease-affected countries.Methods In this work, we examine an essential factor that characterizes the disease transmission patterns: the interactions among people. We develop a computational model to reveal the interactions in terms of the social contact patterns among the population of different age-groups. We divide a city's

BackgroundDengue is a serious vector-borne disease, and incidence rates have significantly increased during the past few years, particularly in 2014 in Guangzhou. The current situation is more complicated, due to various factors such as climate warming, urbanization, population increase, and human mobility. The purpose of this study is to detect dengue transmission patterns and identify the disease dispersion dynamics in Guangzhou, China.MethodologyWe conducted surveys in 12 districts of Guangzhou, and collected daily data of Breteau index (BI) and reported cases between September and November 2014 from the public health authority reports. Based on the available data and the Ross-Macdonald theory, we propose a dengue transmission model that systematically integrates entomologic, demographic, and environmental information. In this model, we use (1) BI data and geographic variables to evaluate the spatial heterogeneities of Aedes mosquitoes, (2) a radiation model to simulate the daily mobility of humans, and (3) a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to estimate the model parameters.Results/ConclusionsBy implementing our proposed model, we can (1) estimate the incidence rates of dengue, and trace the infection time and locations, (2) assess risk factors and evaluate the infection threat in a city, and (3) evaluate the primary diffusion process in different districts. From the results, we can see that dengue infections exhibited a spatial and temporal variation during 2014 in Guangzhou. We find that urbanization, vector activities, and human behavior play significant roles in shaping the dengue outbreak and the patterns of its spread. This study offers useful information on dengue dynamics, which can help policy makers improve control and prevention measures.

BackgroundIn view of the rapid geographic spread and the increasing number of confirmed cases of novel influenza A(H7N9) virus infections in eastern China, we developed a diffusion model to spatiotemporally characterize the impacts of bird migration and poultry distribution on the geographic spread of H7N9 infection.MethodsThree types of infection risks were estimated for 12 weeks, from February 4 to April 28, 2013, including (i) the risk caused by bird migration, (ii) the risk caused by poultry distribution, and (iii) the integrated risk caused by both bird migration and poultry distribution. To achieve this, we first developed a method for estimating the likelihood of bird migration based on available environmental and meteorological data. Then, we adopted a computational mobility model to estimate poultry distribution based on annual poultry production and consumption of each province/municipality. Finally, the spatiotemporal risk maps were created based on the integrated impacts of both bird migration and poultry distribution.ResultsIn the study of risk estimation caused by bird migration, the likelihood matrix was estimated based on the 7-day temperature, from February 4 to April 28, 2013. It was found the estimated migrant birds mainly appear in the southeastern provinces of Zhejiang, Shanghai and Jiangsu during Weeks 1 to 4, and Week 6, followed by appearing in central eastern provinces of Shandong, Hebei, Beijing, and Tianjin during Weeks 7 to 9, and finally in northeastern provinces of Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang during Weeks 10 to 12.In the study of risk caused by poultry distribution, poultry distribution matrix was created to show the probability of poultry distribution. In spite of the fact that the majority of the initial infections were reported in Shanghai and Jiangsu, the relative risk of H7N9 infection estimated based on the poultry distribution model predicted that Jiangsu may have a slightly higher likelihood of H7N9 infection than those in Zhejiang and Shanghai, if we only take the probability of poultry distribution into consideration.In the study of integrated risk caused by both bird migration and poultry distribution, the higher risk in southeastern provinces occurred during the first 8 weeks, and that in central eastern provinces appeared during Weeks 8 to 12, and that in northeastern provinces since Week 12. Therefore, it is necessary to regulate the poultry markets as long as the poultry-to-poultry transmission is not so well understood.ConclusionWith reference to the reported infection cases, the demonstrated risk mapping results will provide guidance in active surveillance and control of human H7N9 infections by taking intensive intervention in poultry markets.

a b s t r a c tEvidence shows that a small number of line contingencies in power systems may cause a large-scale blackout due to the effects of cascading failures. With the development of new technologies and the growing number of heterogeneous participants, a modern/smart grid should be able to self-heal its internal disturbances by continually performing self-assessment to deter, detect, respond to and restore from unpredictable contingencies. Along this line, this research focuses on the problem of how to prevent the occurrence of cascading failures through load shedding by considering heterogeneous shedding costs of grid participants. A fair load-shedding algorithm is proposed to solve the problem in a decentralized manner, where a load-shedding participant need only monitor its own operational status and interact with its neighboring participants. Using an embedded feedback mechanism, the fair load-shedding algorithm can determine a marginal compensation price for each load-shedding participant in real time based on the proportional fairness criterion, without knowing the shedding costs of the participants. Such fairly determined compensations can help motivate loaders/generators to actively participate in the load shedding in the face of internal disturbances. Finally, the properties of the load-shedding algorithm are evaluated by carrying out an experimental study on the standard IEEE 30 bus system. The study will offer new insights into emergency planning and design improvement of self-healing smart grids.