This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. China's dramatic success in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) has raised concerns that it has success diverted FDI from other countries in Asia. We develop a new methodology to estimate crowding out, and we use it to investigate the impact of China's emergence on FDI flows to Asia using data from 14 Asian economies from 1984 to 2002. The results suggest that China did not have much impact on FDI to other countries. In particular, lowincome economies, which compete with China for low-wage investment, and countries with low levels of education or scientific development do not seem to have been especially affected.
This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.This paper develops a simple model to study the impact of stock markets on the current account. A closed-form solution for the current account is derived from the optimal portfolio and consumption/saving choices of a representative agent. Formally, the model can be seen as a stock market-augmented version of the "fundamental equation of the current account" popularized by Jeffrey Sachs. It appears to shed light on recent developments in the U.S. current account deficit. The model also shows how the current account may help predict future stock market performance and/or endowment streams.
The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMP policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.
This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. This paper provides empirical evidence that the propensity for political instability in the Central African Republic (C.A.R.) has been increased by low tax revenues and deteriorations in the terms of trade. The direct effect of political instability on economic growth is not statistically significant, once account is taken of domestic investment, and economic growth in neighboring countries. The policy implications are: (i) mobilization of domestic revenues to pay public employees' salaries and provide basic social services would lower the probability of coups; (ii) economic diversification would reduce the propensity for adverse terms of trade shocks to fuel coups; and (iii) neighboring countries' efforts to resolve conflicts and achieve sustained growth would be beneficial for the C.A.R.'s economic performance.
The present value model of the current account has been very popular, as it provides an optimal benchmark to which actual current account series have often been compared. We show why persistence in observed current account data makes the estimated optimal series very sensitive to small-sample estimation error, making it almost impossible to determine whether the consumption-smoothing current account tracks the actual current account closely, or not closely at all. Moreover, the standard Wald test of the model will falsely accept or reject the model with substantial probability. Monte Carlo simulations and estimations using annual and quarterly data from five OECD countries strongly support our predictions. In particular, we conclude that two important consensus results in the literature - that the optimal series is highly correlated with the actual series, but substantially less volatile - are not statistically robust. --Currrent account,present value model,model evaluation
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