Numerous reports claim that quantum advantage, which should emerge as a direct consequence of the advent of quantum computers, will herald a new era of chemical research because it will enable scientists to perform the kinds of quantum chemical simulations that have not been possible before. Such simulations on quantum computers, promising a significantly greater accuracy and speed, are projected to exert a great impact on the way we can probe reality, predict the outcomes of chemical experiments, and even drive design of drugs, catalysts, and materials. In this work we review the current status of quantum hardware and algorithm theory and examine whether such popular claims about quantum advantage are really going to be transformative. We go over subtle complications of quantum chemical research that tend to be overlooked in discussions involving quantum computers. We estimate quantum computer resources that will be required for performing calculations on quantum computers with chemical accuracy for several types of molecules. In particular, we directly compare the resources and timings associated with classical and quantum computers for the molecules H2 for increasing basis set sizes, and Cr2 for a variety of complete active spaces (CAS) within the scope of the CASCI and CASSCF methods. The results obtained for the chromium dimer enable us to estimate the size of the active space at which computations of non-dynamic correlation on a quantum computer should take less time than analogous computations on a classical computer. The transition point should occur at around 19 ≤ N ≤ 34, for CAS of the type (N, N ), under the assumption of the much-researched surface code. This is significantly smaller than the active spaces discussed in the context of quantum advantage in prior publications. Using this result, we speculate on the types of chemical applications for which the use of quantum computers would be both beneficial and relevant to industrial applications in the short term.
Product development Given the recent breakthroughs in quantum technology development in R& D labs all over the world, the perspective of high-tech companies has changed. Product development is initiated next to the existing research and technology development activities. Quantum computer product roadmap Considering the quantum computer as a product requires standardization and integration of all its building blocks and a mature supply chain that can provide high-quality components and can ensure security of supply. The product development approach puts focus on functionality and performance requirements of the product and uses state-of-the-art technology to build the product. Based on the expected requirements of future products it is possible to outline a product development roadmap. It is expected that a fully functional quantum computer will be available within a decade from now, and will be used by the High Performance Computing (HPC) market, where it will replace (part of) the supercomputers that are currently used for complex calculations and data management. In the short term, a partly functional quantum computer will be available and of interest to the R&D market, which has a need for such a product to expedite their quantum technology developments. ImpaQT project In this paper, we present the product development approach and roadmap for quantum computers, based on superconducting circuits as an example. A group of companies in the Dutch quantum ecosystem (Quantum Delta) have joined forces and have started the ImpaQT project. The companies of the ImpaQT consortium form a local supply chain for key components of quantum computers. This paper shows that quantum community has reached the next level of maturity and that the quantum computer as a commercial product looks set to become a reality.
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