An effective blood-based method for the diagnosis and prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has not yet been developed. Circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) carrying cancer-specific genetic and epigenetic aberrations may enable a noninvasive 'liquid biopsy' for diagnosis and monitoring of cancer. Here, we identified an HCC-specific methylation marker panel by comparing HCC tissue and normal blood leukocytes and showed that methylation profiles of HCC tumour DNA and matched plasma ctDNA are highly correlated. Using cfDNA samples from a large cohort of 1,098 HCC patients and 835 normal controls, we constructed a diagnostic prediction model that showed high diagnostic specificity and sensitivity (P < 0.001) and was highly correlated with tumour burden, treatment response, and stage. Additionally, we constructed a prognostic prediction model that effectively predicted prognosis and survival (P < 0.001). Together, these findings demonstrate in a large clinical cohort the utility of ctDNA methylation markers in the diagnosis, surveillance, and prognosis of HCC.

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A B S T R A C T PurposeA subset of patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) who are predicted to have lower-risk disease as defined by the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) demonstrate more aggressive disease and shorter overall survival than expected. The identification of patients with greater-than-predicted prognostic risk could influence the selection of therapy and improve the care of patients with lower-risk MDS. Patients and MethodsWe performed an independent validation of the MD Anderson Lower-Risk Prognostic Scoring System (LR-PSS) in a cohort of 288 patients with low-or intermediate-1 IPSS risk MDS and examined bone marrow samples from these patients for mutations in 22 genes, including SF3B1, SRSF2, U2AF1, and DNMT3A. ResultsThe LR-PSS successfully stratified patients with lower-risk MDS into three risk categories with significant differences in overall survival (20% in category 1 with median of 5.19 years [95% CI, 3.01 to 10.34 years], 56% in category 2 with median of 2.65 years [95% CI, 2.18 to 3.30 years], and 25% in category 3 with median of 1.11 years [95% CI, 0.82 to 1.51 years]), thus validating this prognostic model. Mutations were identified in 71% of all samples, and mutations associated with a poor prognosis were enriched in the highest-risk LR-PSS category. Mutations of EZH2, RUNX1, TP53, and ASXL1 were associated with shorter overall survival independent of the LR-PSS. Only EZH2 mutations retained prognostic significance in a multivariable model that included LR-PSS and other mutations (hazard ratio, 2.90; 95% CI, 1.85 to 4.52). ConclusionCombining the LR-PSS and EZH2 mutation status identifies 29% of patients with lower-risk MDS with a worse-than-expected prognosis. These patients may benefit from earlier initiation of disease-modifying therapy.