This study evaluates the performance of six atmospheric reanalyses (ERA-Interim, ERA5, JRA-55, CFSv2, MERRA-2, and ASRv2) over Arctic sea ice from winter to early summer. The reanalyses are evaluated using observations from the Norwegian Young Sea Ice campaign (N-ICE2015), a 5-month ice drift in pack ice north of Svalbard. N-ICE2015 observations include surface meteorology, vertical profiles from radiosondes, as well as radiative and turbulent heat fluxes. The reanalyses simulate surface analysis variables well throughout the campaign, but have difficulties with most forecast variables. Wintertime (January–March) correlation coefficients between the reanalyses and observations are above 0.90 for the surface pressure, 2-m temperature, total column water vapor, and downward longwave flux. However, all reanalyses have a positive wintertime 2-m temperature bias, ranging from 1° to 4°C, and negative (i.e., upward) net longwave bias of 3–19 W m−2. These biases are associated with poorly represented surface inversions and are largest during cold-stable periods. Notably, the recent ERA5 and ASRv2 datasets have some of the largest temperature and net longwave biases, respectively. During spring (April–May), reanalyses fail to simulate observed persistent cloud layers. Therefore they overestimate the net shortwave flux (5–79 W m−2) and underestimate the net longwave flux (8–38 W m−2). Promisingly, ERA5 provides the best estimates of downward radiative fluxes in spring and summer, suggesting improved forecasting of Arctic cloud cover. All reanalyses exhibit large negative (upward) residual heat flux biases during winter, and positive (downward) biases during summer. Turbulent heat fluxes over sea ice are simulated poorly in all seasons.

Arctic trends of integrated water vapor were analyzed based on four reanalyses and radiosonde data over 1979–2016. Averaged over the region north of 70°N, the Arctic experiences a robust moistening trend that is smallest in March (0.07 ± 0.06 mm decade−1) and largest in August (0.33 ± 0.18 mm decade−1), according to the reanalyses’ median and over the 38 years. While the absolute trends are largest in summer, the relative ones are largest in winter. Superimposed on the trend is a pronounced interannual variability. Analyzing overlapping 30-yr subsets of the entire period, the maximum trend has shifted toward autumn (September–October), which is related to an accelerated trend over the Barents and Kara Seas. The spatial trend patterns suggest that the Arctic has become wetter overall, but the trends and their statistical significance vary depending on the region and season, and drying even occurs over a few regions. Although the reanalyses are consistent in their spatiotemporal trend patterns, they substantially disagree on the trend magnitudes. The summer and the Nordic and Barents Seas, the central Arctic Ocean, and north-central Siberia are the season and regions of greatest differences among the reanalyses. We discussed various factors that contribute to the differences, in particular, varying sea level pressure trends, which lead to regional differences in moisture transport, evaporation trends, and differences in data assimilation. The trends from the reanalyses show a close agreement with the radiosonde data in terms of spatiotemporal patterns. However, the scarce and nonuniform distribution of the stations hampers the assessment of central Arctic trends.