Cane toads (Bufo marinus) are large anurans (weighing up to 2 kg) that were introduced to Australia 70 years ago to control insect pests in sugar-cane fields. But the result has been disastrous because the toads are toxic and highly invasive. Here we show that the annual rate of progress of the toad invasion front has increased about fivefold since the toads first arrived; we find that toads with longer legs can not only move faster and are the first to arrive in new areas, but also that those at the front have longer legs than toads in older (long-established) populations. The disaster looks set to turn into an ecological nightmare because of the negative effects invasive species can have on native ecosystems; over many generations, rates of invasion will be accelerated owing to rapid adaptive change in the invader, with continual 'spatial selection' at the expanding front favouring traits that increase the toads' dispersal.

In classical evolutionary theory, traits evolve because they facilitate organismal survival and/or reproduction. We discuss a different type of evolutionary mechanism that relies upon differential dispersal. Traits that enhance rates of dispersal inevitably accumulate at expanding range edges, and assortative mating between fast-dispersing individuals at the invasion front results in an evolutionary increase in dispersal rates in successive generations. This cumulative process (which we dub "spatial sorting") generates novel phenotypes that are adept at rapid dispersal, irrespective of how the underlying genes affect an organism's survival or its reproductive success. Although the concept is not original with us, its revolutionary implications for evolutionary theory have been overlooked. A range of biological phenomena (e.g., acceleration of invasion fronts, insular flightlessness, preadaptation) may have evolved via spatial sorting as well as (or rather than) by natural selection, and this evolutionary mechanism warrants further study.colonization | evolution | spatial disequilibrium | nonadaptive evolution I n 1859, Charles Darwin proposed a mechanism to explain the process by which organisms become well matched to local conditions. That mechanism was natural selection (1). At its heart lies the concept of differential lifetime reproductive success (LRS). Significant extensions to the paradigm since Darwin's work-such as multiple levels of selection (2, 3)-all rely upon the basic principle that, through time, some genes leave more copies of themselves than do others (4). Here we describe an additional mechanism whereby traits evolve because genes are differentially successful through space rather than time. This idea is not new; the process was described long ago (5), has been explored in several spatially explicit models of nonequilibrial populations (6-8), and is widely recognized by researchers who work with range-edge dynamics (9). The basis of the idea is that on expanding range edges evolutionary change can arise from differential dispersal rates (spatial sorting) as well as from differential survival or reproductive success. Spatial sorting and classical natural selection both require heritable variation, and both result in deterministic shifts in phenotypic attributes, but the two evolutionary processes rely on fundamentally different mechanisms (spatial filtering versus temporal filtering). Mainstream biology has failed to recognize that evolutionary change can be caused by spatial sorting as well as by conventional natural selection. Spatial SortingImagine a species expanding its range into hitherto unoccupied territory and with a genetic basis to variation among individuals in dispersal rates (6-8). For example, continuously distributed variation may occur in dispersal-relevant morphological traits [e.g., seed shape (5), flight musculature and wing size (7, 10), leg length (11), foot size (12)], behavior [movement patterns (13)], and physiology [locomotor endurance (14)]. Alleles that confer the hi...

During range-advance, individuals on the expanding edge of the population face a unique selective environment. In this study, we use a three-trait trade-off model to explore the evolution of dispersal, reproduction and competitive ability during range expansion. We show that range expansion greatly affects the evolution of life-history traits due to differing selection pressures at the front of the range compared with those found in stationary and core populations. During range expansion, dispersal and reproduction are selected for on the expanding population front, whereas traits associated with fitness at equilibrium density (competitive ability) show dramatic declines. Additionally, we demonstrate that the presence of a competing species can considerably reduce the extent to which dispersal is selected upwards at an expanding front. These findings have important implications for understanding both the rate of spread of invasive species and the range-shifting dynamics of native species in response to climate change.

Most evolutionary theory does not deal with populations expanding or contracting in space. Invasive species, climate change, epidemics, and the breakdown of dispersal barriers, however, all create populations in this kind of spatial disequilibrium. Importantly, spatial disequilibrium can have important ecological and evolutionary outcomes. During continuous range expansion, for example, populations on the expanding front experience novel evolutionary pressures because frontal populations are assorted by dispersal ability and have a lower density of conspecifics than do core populations. These conditions favor the evolution of traits that increase rates of dispersal and reproduction. Additionally, lowered density on the expanding front eventually frees populations on the expanding edge from specialist, coevolved enemies, permitting higher investment into traits associated with dispersal and reproduction rather than defense against pathogens. As a result, the process of range expansion drives rapid life-history evolution, and this seems to occur despite ongoing serial founder events that have complex effects on genetic diversity at the expanding front. Traits evolving on the expanding edge are smeared across the landscape as the front moves through, leaving an ephemeral signature of range expansion in the life-history traits of a species across its newly colonized range. Recent studies suggest that such nonequilibrium processes during recent population history may have contributed to many patterns usually ascribed to evolutionary forces acting in populations at spatial equilibrium.

Accurate predictions of the potential distribution of range-shifting species are required for effective management of invasive species, and for assessments of the impact of climate change on native species. Range-shifting species pose a challenge for traditional correlative approaches to range prediction, often requiring the extrapolation of complex statistical associations into novel environmental space. Here we take an alternative approach that does not use species occurrence data, but instead captures the fundamental niche of a species by mechanistically linking key organismal traits with spatial data using biophysical models. We demonstrate this approach with a major invasive species, the cane toad Bufo marinus in Australia, assessing the direct climatic constraints on its ability to move, survive, and reproduce. We show that the current range can be explained by thermal constraints on the locomotor potential of the adult stage together with limitations on the availability of water for the larval stage. Our analysis provides a framework for biologically grounded predictions of the potential for cane toads to expand their range under current and future climate scenarios. More generally, by quantifying spatial variation in physiological constraints on an organism, trait-based approaches can be used to investigate the range-limits of any species. Assessments of spatial variation in the physiological constraints on an organism may also provide a mechanistic basis for forecasting the rate of range expansion and for understanding a species' potential to evolve at range-edges. Mechanistic approaches thus have broad application to process-based ecological and evolutionary models of range-shift.