HIV/AIDS is a leading cause of disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Existing evidence has demonstrated that there is substantial local variation in the prevalence of HIV; however, subnational variation has not been investigated at a high spatial resolution across the continent. Here we explore within-country variation at a 5 × 5-km resolution in sub-Saharan Africa by estimating the prevalence of HIV among adults (aged 15–49 years) and the corresponding number of people living with HIV from 2000 to 2017. Our analysis reveals substantial within-country variation in the prevalence of HIV throughout sub-Saharan Africa and local differences in both the direction and rate of change in HIV prevalence between 2000 and 2017, highlighting the degree to which important local differences are masked when examining trends at the country level. These fine-scale estimates of HIV prevalence across space and time provide an important tool for precisely targeting the interventions that are necessary to bringing HIV infections under control in sub-Saharan Africa.

Insufficient growth during childhood is associated with poor health outcomes and an increased risk of death. Between 2000 and 2015, nearly all African countries demonstrated improvements for children under 5 years old for stunting, wasting, and underweight, the core components of child growth failure. Here we show that striking subnational heterogeneity in levels and trends of child growth remains. If current rates of progress are sustained, many areas of Africa will meet the World Health Organization Global Targets 2025 to improve maternal, infant and young child nutrition, but high levels of growth failure will persist across the Sahel. At these rates, much, if not all of the continent will fail to meet the Sustainable Development Goal target-to end malnutrition by 2030. Geospatial estimates of child growth failure provide a baseline for measuring progress as well as a precision public health platform to target interventions to those populations with the greatest need, in order to reduce health disparities and accelerate progress.

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017 Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low-and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations. Gains in child survival have long served as an important proxy measure for improvements in overall population health and development 1,2. Global progress in reducing child deaths has been heralded as one of the greatest success stories of global health 3. The annual global number of deaths of children under 5 years of age (under 5) 4 has declined from 19.6 million in 1950 to 5.4 million in 2017. Nevertheless, these advances in child survival have been far from universally achieved, particularly in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) 4. Previous subnational child mortality assessments at the first (that is, states or provinces) or second (that is, districts or counties) administrative level indicate that extensive geographical inequalities persist 5-7. Progress in child survival also diverges across age groups 4. Global reductions in mortality rates of children under 5-that is, the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR)-among post-neonatal age groups are greater than those for mortality of neonates (0-28 days) 4,8. It is relatively unclear how these age patterns are shifting at a more local scale, posing challenges to ensuring child survival. To pursue the ambitious Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of the United Nations 9 to "end preventable deaths of newborns and children under 5" by 2030, it is vital for decision-makers at all levels to better understand where, and at what ages, child survival remains most tenuous.

Summary Background Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4–40·7) to 50·3% (50·0–50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1–46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5–29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2–89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664–711) of the 1830 (1797–1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6–80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6–59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpreta...

Abstract. In Africa, malaria is predominantly a rural disease where agriculture forms the backbone of the economy. Various agro-ecosystems and crop production systems have an impact on mosquito productivity, and hence malaria transmission intensity. This study was carried out to determine spatial and temporal variations in anopheline mosquito population and malaria transmission intensity in five villages, representing different agro-ecosystems in Mvomero district, Tanzania, so as to provide baseline information for malaria interventions. The agro-ecosystems consisted of irrigated sugarcane, flooding rice irrigation, non-flooding rice irrigation, wet savannah and dry savannah. In each setting, adult mosquitoes were sampled monthly using Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) light traps from August 2004 to July 2005. A total of 35,702 female mosquitoes were collected. Anopheles gambiae sensu lato was the most abundant (58.9%) mosquito species. An. funestus accounted for 12.0% of the mosquitoes collected. There was a substantial village to village variation and seasonality in the density of Anopheles mosquito population, with peaks in May towards the end of the warm and rainy season. Significantly larger numbers of anophelines were collected from traditional flooding rice irrigation ecosystem (70.7%) than in non-flooding rice irrigation (8.6%), sugarcane (7.0%), wet savannah (7.3%) and dry savannah (6.4%). The overall sporozoite rates for An. gambiae and An. funestus were 3.4% and 2.3%, respectively. The combined overall sporozoite rate (An. gambiae+An. funestus) was 3.2%. The mean annual entomological inoculation rate (EIR) for An. gambiae s.l. was 728 infective bites per person per year and this was significantly higher in traditional flooding rice irrigation (1351) than in other agro-ecosystems. The highest EIRs for An. gambiae s.l. and An. funestus were observed during May 2005 (long rainy season) and December 2004 (short rainy season), respectively. The findings support the evidence that malaria transmission risk varies even between neighbouring villages and is influenced by agro-ecosystems. This study therefore, demonstrates the need to generate spatial and temporal data on transmission intensity on smaller scales taking into consideration agro-ecosystems that will identify area-specific transmission intensity to guide targeted control of malaria operations.

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The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) states that the ultimate mission of the education targets in Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 4 is to "ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all" [1][2][3] . This is important, because it has been shown that increasing the number of years of schooling that are completed (educational attainment), can lead to higher capital, greater social mobility and increased equity among men and women, in these and other socio-economic outcomes 1,2,4-8 . Educational attainment for women of reproductive age is also among the leading social determinants of health, with higher attainment being strongly associated with improved reproductive health and decreased child mortality [9][10][11][12][13][14] . The causal pathway between education and health is difficult to study, because randomized control trial methods are logistically challenging and ethically problematic. Observational studies controlling for other predictors of health status, such as age and income, however, indicate that even small gains in educational attainment may improve health outcomes across a wide variety of low-income contexts. Studies across diverse settings have found that increased education for women of reproductive age is associated with improved child nutrition and decreased child mortality, and this effect is consistently stronger than increases in income 15,16 . Importantly, a comprehensive multi-level study found that increases in average attainment in communities are associated with improved survival for infants born to all women in that community, regardless of their own educational attainment or income 17 . This is consistent with research on health behaviours, showing that less-educated women model health behaviours on those of their broader community 18 . These improved health outcomes have also been shown through increased use of prenatal care, greater adherence to treatment regimens and increased contraception use 9,12,19,20 . Despite these clear benefits, international aid for basic education has been deprioritized as a proportion of total aid expenditure every year since 2010 21 . Precision public health and educationSDG 4 focuses on the reduction of inequalities in education on the basis of factors such as wealth, sex and location 1,2,22 . In addition, UNESCO's agenda for reforming education access in developing countries is itself centred around equity 22,23 . Global health efforts have included substantial investments in the use of data to guide interventions that will benefit populations more efficiently and increase equity in outcomes, a strategy that has been termed precision public health 24 . The same paradigm should be extended to the social determinants of health that must be addressed for progress to be sustained. Therefore, although comparable indicators of educational attainment exist at the national level, it is increasingly important to measure subnational variation.While past studies h...

Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea.Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates.Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54•0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38•1-65•8), 17•4% (7•7-28•4), and 59•5% (34•2-86•9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage.Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health.Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.