Based on a version of the IMF's global economy model set up to analyse macroeconomic interdependence between the United States and the rest of the world, this paper asks to what extent accelerating productivity growth in the United States may have contributed to the US real exchange rate appreciation and the trade balance deterioration witnessed in the second half of the 1990s. The paper concludes that productivity is only part of this story. A portfolio preference shift in favour of US assets, possibly triggered by faster productivity growth, and some uncertainty and learning about the persistence of both shocks are needed to match the data more satisfactorily.Ã For helpful discussions and comments, the authors wish to thank the editors (Benn Steil and Fabio Ghironi) and an anonymous referee,
Japan has the most rapidly aging population in the world. This affects growth and fiscal sustainability, but the potential impact on inflation has been studied less. We use the IMF's Global Integrated Fiscal and Monetary Model (GIMF) and find substantial deflationary pressures from aging, mainly from declining growth and falling land prices. Dissaving by the elderly makes matters worse as it leads to real exchange rate appreciation from the repatriation of foreign assets. The deflationary effects from aging are magnified by the large fiscal consolidation need. Many of these factors will beset other advanced countries as well, but we find that deflation risk from aging is not inevitable as ambitious structural reforms and an aggressive monetary policy reaction can provide the offset.
The Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM) is a group of models developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis. A typical module of FSGM is a multi-region, forward-looking semi-structural global model consisting of 24 regions. Using the three core modules focused on the G-20, the euro area, and emerging market economies, this paper outlines the theory underpinning the model, and illustrates its macroeconomic properties by presenting its responses under a wide range of experiments, including monetary, financial, demand, supply, fiscal and international shocks.
The IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is used to examine the scope for structural reforms in the euro area to offset the negative impact of fiscal consolidation required to put public debt back on a sustainable path. The results suggest that structural reforms in core countries could be expected to offset the near-term negative impact on activity arising from the required fiscal consolidation. However, for the periphery, the results suggest that it would take several years before structural reforms could return the level of output back to its pre-consolidation path.
This study investigated the effect of UK dairy production system, month, and their interaction, on retail milk fatty acid (FA) profile throughout the year. Milk samples (n=120) from four conventional (CON), four organic (ORG) and two free-range (FR) brands were collected monthly. ORG milk had more nutritionally-desirable polyunsaturated FA, including rumenic acid and the omega-3 PUFA α-linolenic, eicosapentaenoic and docosapentaenoic acids, and less of the nutritionally-undesirable palmitic acid. Milk FA profile was similar between FR and CON, but FR milk had less SFA and/or palmitic acid, and/or greater α-linolenic and rumenic acids in certain months within the peak-grazing season. According to the measured milk FA profiles and UK milk fat intakes, milk and dairy products contribute around one-third of the maximum recommended saturated FA intake. A small increased intake of beneficial PUFA may be expected by consuming ORG milk but human health implications from such differences are unknown.
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