ABSTRACT:We examine tropospheric temperature trends of 67 runs from 22 'Climate of the 20th Century' model simulations and try to reconcile them with the best available updated observations (in the tropics during the satellite era). Model results and observed temperature trends are in disagreement in most of the tropical troposphere, being separated by more than twice the uncertainty of the model mean. In layers near 5 km, the modelled trend is 100 to 300% higher than observed, and, above 8 km, modelled and observed trends have opposite signs. These conclusions contrast strongly with those of recent publications based on essentially the same data.

As a consequence of greenhouse forcing, all state‐of‐the‐art general circulation models predict a positive temperature trend that is greater for the troposphere than the surface. This predicted positive trend increases in value with altitude until it reaches a maximum ratio with respect to the surface of as much as 1.5 to 2.0 at about 200–400 hPa. However, the temperature trends from several independent observational data sets show decreasing as well as mostly negative values. This disparity indicates that the three models examined here fail to account for the effects of greenhouse forcings.

[1] Observations suggest that the earth's surface has been warming relative to the troposphere for the last 25 years; this is not only difficult to explain but also contrary to the results of climate models. We provide new evidence that the disparity is real. Introducing an additional data set, R2 2-meter temperatures, a diagnostic variable related to tropospheric temperature profiles, we find trends derived from it to be in close agreement with satellite measurements of tropospheric temperature. This suggests that the disparity likely is a result of near-surface processes. We find that the disparity does not occur uniformly across the globe, but is primarily confined to tropical regions which are primarily oceanic. Since the ocean measurements are sea surface temperatures, we suggest that the disparity is probably associated with processes at the ocean-atmosphere interface. Our study thus makes unlikely some of the explanations advanced to account for the disparity; it also demonstrates the importance of distinguishing between land, sea and air measurements.

We have measured the intrinsic fluorescence anisotropies of six photosensitizers in homogeneous solution, and we have imaged the anisotropies of these sensitizers in tumor cell monolayers using polarization-sensitive laser-scanning confocal microscopy. The intrinsic anisotropies are unremarkable and are within the approximate range of 0.2-0.27. In cells, however, very interesting behavior is exhibited by meso-tetrahydroxyphenyl chlorin (mTHPC). Polarization-sensitive images of mTHPC's fluorescence show a pronounced banding of alternating high and low anisotropy consistent with an ordering of the sensitizer in the nuclear envelope, indicating that this structure is a target of photodynamic damage with this sensitizer. None of the other sensitizers exhibits localization to the nuclear envelope. The frequency distributions of the intracellular anisotropies of the sensitizers exhibit variable peaks and widths. An unusual case is that of Photofrin, with a peak in its anisotropy frequency distribution of -0.12. The change from a positive intrinsic anisotropy in homogeneous solution to a negative value in cells suggests an environmentally induced change in the relative orientations of the absorption and emission dipole moments.

[1] We analyze the temperature anomaly of the Pinatubo eruption using an exact mathematical solution of a standard energy balance model that includes coupling between the mixed layer and the thermocline. Our solution yields a short response time t = 4.4 months and a small climate sensitivity l = 0.22 C/(W/m 2 ), implying short-term negative feedback. Also, our analysis determines a value of the effective eddy diffusion constant k = 2 Â 10 À6 m 2 /s that is much smaller than that assumed in many climate models. We find for this model that the heat flux to the thermocline reverses sign and integrates to zero for any forcing of finite duration. This effect should be observable in any future Pinatubotype event. Citation: