This paper synthesizes current knowledge on the impacts of the Gibe III dam and associated large-scale commercial farming in the Omo-Turkana Basin, based on an expert elicitation coupled with a scoping review and the collective knowledge of an multidisciplinary network of researchers with active data-collection programs in the Basin. We use social-ecological systems and political ecology frameworks to assess the impacts of these interventions on hydrology and ecosystem services in the Basin, and cascading effects on livelihoods, patterns of migration, and conflict dynamics for the people of the region. A landscape-scale transformation is occurring in which commodities, rather than staple foods for local consumption, are becoming the main output of the region. Mitigation measures initiated by the Ethiopian government—notably resettlement schemes—are not adequately buffering affected communities from food insecurity following disruption to indigenous livelihood systems. Therefore, while benefits are accruing to labor migrants, the costs of development are currently borne primarily by the agro–pastoralist indigenous people of the region. We consider measures that might maximize benefits from the changes underway and mitigate their negative outcomes, such as controlled floods, irrigating fodder crops, food aid, and benefit sharing.
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Major cutbacks in size and processing capacity cast reasonable doubts on the economic returns of the state-owned Kuraz Sugar Development Project (KSDP) in Ethiopia's lower Omo Valley. The pressing question, however, is not whether the KSDP will be able to meet the great expectations placed on its contributions to the national economy, but rather how much this unprecedented agribusiness venture will fall short of its stated agro-economic and macroeconomic objectives. The upstream damming of the Omo River which allows for the development of irrigated sugarcane cultivation has ruled out the continuation of flood-recession agriculturethe central pillar of indigenous livelihoods in the lower Omo Valley. Although clearly unparalleled in terms of its impacts on the local environmental and social landscape, the status of central aspects of the KSDP remain contested. This article summarises recent findings on the planning, status, and outlook of the sugar industry in the lower Omo Valley. It concludes, after illustrating the correlation between agro-economic, macroeconomic, and developmental results, that the KSDP has reached a crucial juncture: the reduction in acreage of the project thwarts the reconstruction of local livelihoods, which calls for an adjusted strategy.
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