SummaryBackgroundAn understanding of the trends in tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality is crucial to tracking of the success of tuberculosis control programmes and identification of remaining challenges. We assessed trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis over the past 25 years for 195 countries and territories.MethodsWe analysed 10 691 site-years of vital registration data, 768 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 361 site-years of mortality surveillance data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate tuberculosis mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including annual case notifications, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We assessed how observed tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality differed from expected trends as predicted by the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator based on income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. We also estimated tuberculosis mortality and disability-adjusted life-years attributable to the independent effects of risk factors including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes.FindingsGlobally, in 2015, the number of tuberculosis incident cases (including new and relapse cases) was 10·2 million (95% uncertainty interval 9·2 million to 11·5 million), the number of prevalent cases was 10·1 million (9·2 million to 11·1 million), and the number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·1 million to 1·6 million). Among individuals who were HIV negative, the number of incident cases was 8·8 million (8·0 million to 9·9 million), the number of prevalent cases was 8·9 million (8·1 million to 9·7 million), and the number of deaths was 1·1 million (0·9 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change from 2005 to 2015 showed a faster decline in mortality (–4·1% [–5·0 to –3·4]) than in incidence (–1·6% [–1·9 to –1·2]) and prevalence (–0·7% [–1·0 to –0·5]) among HIV-negative individuals. The SDI was inversely associated with HIV-negative mortality rates but did not show a clear gradient for incidence and prevalence. Most of Asia, eastern Europe, and sub-Saharan Africa had higher rates of HIV-negative tuberculosis burden than expected given their SDI. Alcohol use accounted for 11·4% (9·3–13·0) of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals in 2015, diabetes accounted for 10·6% (6·8–14·8), and smoking accounted for 7·8% (3·8–12·0).InterpretationDespite a concerted global effort to reduce the burden of tuberculosis, it still causes a large disease burden globally. Strengthening of health systems for early detection of tuberculosis and improvement of the quality of tuberculosis care, including prompt and accurate diagnosis, early initiation of treatment, and regular follow-up, are priorities. Countries with higher than expected tuberculosis rates for their level of sociodemographic development should i...

Year of enrollment and treatment center were significantly associated with treatment success. Although the overall treatment success obtained in this study is in line with the World Health Organization (WHO) target, continuous follow-up of patients with frequent supportive supervision during the course of treatment, and further investigate the cause for the observed difference in treatment success across treatment centers are recommended.

BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of mortality among infectious diseases worldwide. Ninty five percent of TB cases and 98% of deaths due to TB occur in developing countries. Globally, the mortality rate has declined with the introduction of effective anti TB chemotherapy. Nevertheless, some patients with active TB still die while on treatment for their disease. In Ethiopia, little is known on survival and risk factors for mortality among a cohort of TB patients. The objective of the study is to determine the magnitude and identify risk factors associated with time to death among TB patients treated under DOTS programme in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.MethodsThis is a retrospective cohort study. Data was obtained by assessing medical records of TB patients registered from June 2004 to July 2009 G.C and treated under the DOTS strategy in three randomly selected health centers. A step-wise multivariable Cox's regression model and Kaplan- Meier curves were used to model the outcome of interest. Mortality was used as an outcome measure. Person-years of observation (PYO) were calculated from the date of starting anti-TB treatment to date of outcome and was calculated as the number of deaths/100 PYO. Statistical analysis SPSS version 16 was used for data analysis and results were reported significant whenever P-value was less than 5%.ResultsFrom a total of 6,450 registered TB patients 236(3.7%) were died. More than 75% death occurred within eight month of treatment initiation. The mean and median times of survival starting from the date of treatment initiation were 7.2 and 7.9 months, respectively. Comparison of survival curves using Kaplan Meier curves method with log-rank test showed that the survival status was significantly different between patient categories as well as across treatment centers (P < 0.05). The death rate of pulmonary positive, pulmonary negative and extra pulmonary TB patients were 2.7%, 3.6%, and 4.3%, respectively. Body weight at initiation of anti-TB treatment (<35 kg), patient category, year of enrollment and treatment center were independent predictors for time to death.ConclusionsMost of the patients were died at the end of treatment period. This underlines the need for devising a mechanism of standardizing the existing DOTS programme and nutritional support for underweight patients for better clinical and treatment outcome.

BackgroundWhile investment in the development of Tuberculosis (TB) treatment strategies is essential, it cannot be assumed that the strategies are affordable for TB patients living in countries with high economic constraints. This study aimed to determine the economic consequences of directly observed therapy for TB patients.MethodsA cross-sectional cost-of-illness analysis was conducted between September to November 2015 among 576 randomly selected adult TB patients who were on directly observed treatment in 27 public health facilities in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Data were collected using interviewer-administered questionnaire adapted from the Tool to Estimate Patients’ Costs. Mean and median costs, reduction of productivity, and household expenditure of TB patients were calculated and ways of coping costs captured. Eta (η), Odds ratio and p values were used to measure association between variables.ResultsOf the total 576 TB patients enrolled, 43 % were smear-positive pulmonary TB (PTB), 17 % smear-negative PTB, 37 % Extra-PTB and 3 % multi-drug resistant TB cases. Direct (Out-of-Pocket) mean and median costs of TB illness to patients were $123.0 (SD = 58.8) and $125.78 (R = 338.12), respectively, and indirect (loss income) mean and median costs were $54.26 (SD = 43.5) and $44.61 (R = 215.6), respectively. Mean and median total cost of TB illness to patient were $177.3 (SD = 78.7) and $177.1 (R = 461.8), respectively. The total cost had significant association with patient’s household income, residence, need for additional food, and primary income (P <0.05). Direct costs were catastrophic for 63 % of TB patients, regardless of significant difference between gender (P = 0.92) and type of TB cases (P = 0.37). TB patients mean productivity and income reduced by 37 and 10 %, respectively, compared with pre-treatment level, while mean household expenditure increased by 33 % and working hours reduced by 78 % due to TB illness. Income quartile categories were directly correlated with catastrophic costs (η = 0.684).ConclusionDespite the availability of free-of-charge anti-TB drugs, TB patients were suffering from out-of-pocket payments with catastrophic consequences, which in turn were hampering the efforts to end TB. TB patients in resource-limited countries deserve integrated patient-centered care with comprehensive health insurance coverage, financial incentives, and nutrition support to reduce catastrophic costs and retain them in care. Such countries should induce home-based directly observed therapy programs to reduce costs due to attending health facilities, intensify home treatment of critically-ill patients with impaired mobility, and reduce the spread of TB due to patients traveling to seek care.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40249-016-0187-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

BackgroundDirectly observed treatment, short course (DOTS) strategy has been a cornerstone for Tuberculosis (TB) control programs in developing countries. However, in Ethiopia satisfaction level of patients’ with TB with the this strategy is not well understood. Therefore, the study aimed to assess the satisfaction level of patients with TB with the DOTS.MethodExplanatory sequential mixed method design was carried out in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Interviewer-administered questionnaire with 601 patients with TB who were on follow-up was employed in the quantitative approach. In the qualitative approach telephonic-interview with 25 persons lost to follow-up and focus group discussions with 23 TB experts were conducted.ResultSixty seven percent of respondent was satisfied with the DOTS. Rural residency (AOR = 3.4, 95% CI 1.6, 7.6), having TB symptoms (AOR = 0.6, 95% CI 0.4, 0.94) and treatment supporter (AOR = 4.3, 95%CI 2.7, 6.8) were associated with satisfaction with DOTS.In qualitative finding, all persons lost to follow-up were dissatisfied while TB experts enlightened lack of evidence to affirm the satisfaction level of patients with DOTS. Explored factors contributing to satisfaction include: on time availability of health care providers, DOTS service delivery process, general condition of health care facilities, nutritional support and transportation.ConclusionDOTS is limited to satisfy patients with TB and lacks a consistent system that determines the satisfaction level of patients with TB. Therefore, DOTS strategy needs to have a system to captures patients’ satisfaction level to respond on areas that need progress to improve DOTS service quality.