Abstract. Population ageing generates problems of financial sustainability for unfunded pension systems in many developed countries. Immigration is often presented as one potential solution to this problem, mainly in countries with high migration inflows. The authors propose a model to analyse the impact of immigration flows on the financial sustainability of the pay‐as‐you‐go method, using Spain as a test case. They show that, despite their size, these inflows do not solve the Spanish pension system's sustainability problem, leading to the need for parametric reforms. The article also presents the intensity of the reforms required to maintain the system's financial equilibrium.
This paper discusses the long run effect of changes in the age distribution of Spanish population on the unemployment rate, disaggregated by sex and age segments in the light of cointegration theory given the non stationarity of the series. Four main results are obtained. First, empirical analysis does not provide a clear scheme concerning the long run relationships between population variables and the specific unemployment rates for different groups. Second, as a first approximation one can detect the existence of, at least, one long run equilibrium relationship in all sex-age groups, except for the ones including the middle aged unemployed female workers and oldest unemployed female workers. Third, a more thorough analysis enables us to justify the existence of such long run relationships for the youngest male workers and middle aged male workers. One cannot argue, however, a joint evolution of population variables and the unemployment rates associated with female workers and to the oldest male workers. Fourth, the short run dynamics of unemployment rates for the youngest (male and female workers) and the middle age male workers is affected by the transitory deviations from these long run relationships. Hence, from an applied economics point of view, the result stresses the likely failure of employment policies which do not take into account the heterogeneous composition of unemployed workers. It stresses the need to design particular policies for specific groups of workers depending on their age and sex characteristics. JEL classification codes: E24, J19, J64
The decline of agriculture, observable mainly in industrialized countries, shows itself not only in a gradual decrease in the economic weight of the primary sector, but also in the abandonment of land devoted to agricultural and livestock activities. The phenomenon of agricultural land abandonment is complex and, in order to explain the causes, it is necessary to consider not only the physical and productive features of the land but also the social and economic characteristics of the area. It also appears to be conditioned by production specialization, since traditional livestock-raising areas show a higher risk of abandonment. The process, which is gradual, starts with a reduction in production intensity followed by increasing marginalization and, finally, the total abandonment of land use. Focusing on a representative area on the Cantabrian Coast of northern Spain, this study tests the hypothesis that a large portion of agricultural land in livestock-oriented regions is underused. It also evaluates the viability of forestry as an alternative use for abandoned lands and the potential effects of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform
In this paper we study the effect of population age distribution upon private consumption expenditure in Spain from 1964 to 1997 using aggregate data. We obtain four main results. First, changes in the population pyramid have substantial effects upon the behaviour of private consumption. Second, the pattern of the coefficients of the demographic variables is not consistent with the simplest version of the life cycle hypothesis. Third, we estimate the impact of the demographic transition upon consumption and find positive values associated with episodes in which the shares of groups of individuals with expenditure levels higher (lower) than the mean increased (decreased). Fourth, the results are robust to alternative specifications for the population age distribution.JEL Classification: E20, J19, Aggregate data, demographic heterogeneity, age, consumption,
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