Abstract. Topography, weather, and fuels are known factors driving fire behavior, but the degree to which each contributes to the spatial pattern of fire severity under different conditions remains poorly understood. The variability in severity within the boundaries of the 2006 wildfires that burned in the Klamath Mountains, northern California, along with data on burn conditions and new analytical tools, presented an opportunity to evaluate factors influencing fire severity under burning conditions representative of those where management of wildfire for resource benefit is most likely. Fire severity was estimated as the percent change in canopy cover (0-100%) classified from the Relativized differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (RdNBR), and spatial data layers were compiled to determine strength of associations with topography, weather, and variables directly or indirectly linked to fuels, such as vegetation type, number of previous fires, and time since last fire. Detailed fire progressions were used to estimate weather (e.g., temperature, relative humidity, temperature inversions, and solar radiation) at the time of burning. A generalized additive regression model with random effects and an additional spatial term to account for autocorrelation between adjacent locations was fitted to fire severity. In this fire year characterized by the relative absence of extreme fire weather, topographical complexity most strongly influenced severity. Upper-and mid-slopes tended to burn at higher fire severity than lower-slopes. East-and southeast-facing aspects tended to burn at higher severity than other aspects. Vegetation type and fire history were also important predictors of fire severity. Shrub vegetation was more likely to burn at higher severity than mixed hardwood/conifer or hardwood vegetation. As expected, fire severity was positively associated with time since previous fire, but the relationship was non-linear. Of the weather variables analyzed, temperature inversions, common in the complex topography of the Klamath Mountains, showed the strongest association with fire severity. Inversions trapped smoke and had a dampening effect on severity within the landscape underneath the inversion. Understanding the spatial controls on mixed-severity fires allows managers to better plan for future wildfires and aide in the decision making when managing lightning ignitions for resource benefit might be appropriate.
Extreme drought stress and associated bark beetle population growth contributed to an extensive tree mortality event in California, USA, resulting in more than 129 million trees dying between 2012 and 2016. Although drought is an important driver of this mortality event, past and ongoing fire suppression and the consequent densification of forests may have contributed. In some areas, land management agencies have worked to reduce stand density through mechanical treatments and prescribed fire to restore forests to less dense, more open conditions that are presumably more resilient to disturbance and changing climate. Here, we evaluate if stand structural conditions associated with treated (e.g., thinned and prescribed burned) forests in the Sierra Nevada of California conferred more resistance to the bark beetle epidemic and drought event of 2012–2016. We found that, compared to untreated units, treated units had lower stand densities, larger average tree diameters, and greater dominance of pines (Pinus), the historically dominant trees. For all tree species studied, mortality was substantially greater in climatically drier areas (i.e., lower elevations and latitudes). Both pine species studied (ponderosa pine [Pinus ponderosa] and sugar pine [Pinus lambertiana]) had greater mortality in areas where their diameters were larger, suggesting a size preference for their insect mortality agents. For ponderosa pine, the tree species experiencing greatest mortality, individual‐tree mortality probability (for a given tree diameter) was significantly lower in treated stands. Ponderosa pine mortality was also positively related to density of medium‐ to large‐sized conspecific trees, especially in areas with lower precipitation, suggesting that abundance of nearby host trees for insect mortality agents was an important determinant of pine mortality. Mortality of incense cedar (Calocedrus decurrens) and white fir (Abies concolor) was positively associated with basal area, suggesting sensitivity to competition during drought, but overall mortality was lower, likely because the most prevalent and effective mortality agents (the bark beetles Dendroctonus brevicomis and D. ponderosae) are associated specifically with pine species within our study region. Our findings suggest that forest thinning treatments are effective in reducing drought‐related tree mortality in forests, and they underscore the important interaction between water and forest density in mediating bark beetle‐caused mortality.
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