Over the past decade, global sales of electric vehicles (EVs) have experienced significant growth. However, predictions of future sales developments, which are needed for the planning of EV production as well as supporting policies and a sufficient energy supply, are still sparse. In this study, a long-term forecast of the EV inventory in 26 countries across five continents is provided by means of a logistic growth model. Using actual sales data from 2010 to 2018, predictions were made for these countries until 2035. Findings indicate that, overall, 30% of the worldwide passenger vehicle fleet will be EVs in 2032. However, results also display vast differences between countries, which can particularly be attributed to divergences in governmental support. EV growth predictions were additionally analyzed in terms of sustainability impacts. The analysis showed that reductions in CO 2 emissions can be achieved with the predicted EV growth, given that countries invest heavily in renewable energy sources. Given the current energy mixes though, worldwide CO 2 emissions will continue to rise until 2035 despite a nearly 50% share of EVs. The paper further discusses the amount of energy that will be required to meet the growing demand and highlights that the production of EV batteries will be the key bottleneck in the development of EVs. Finally, important implications for policymakers, marketers and future research are derived.
Since the beginning of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has posed a global threat to humankind. In addition to many cases of illness and millions of deaths, the economy has suffered. Not surprisingly, vehicle sales have declined sharply in most countries by up to 25%. However, the overall sales of electric vehicles (EVs) did not stall; instead, they increased to previously forecasted levels. Is this increase evidence that COVID-19 has promoted sustainable action and strengthened environmental awareness, as researchers have discussed in recently published articles? Or is this merely the effect of monetary incentives by governments, as has been demonstrated in scientific research? This study examines the causes behind the surprising continuous climb of EV sales despite the outbreak of the pandemic by contrasting the influence of COVID-19 on environmental concerns and the usual monetary incentives with their potential complementary effects.
The mobility sector is changing due to its negative consequences and companies’ reactions thereupon. New mobility solutions enter the market quickly, while it is uncertain where the shift in the industry will lead. Thus, companies ought to understand people’s future mobility needs to successfully adjust their innovations accordingly. This study examines customers' insights into future mobility via trend receiver interviews in Europe, the United States and China. Findings reveal that some companies’ current strategies align with future customers’ mobility expectations, while other innovations may be under- or overestimated. These insights are of value for automobile manufacturers, marketing managers as well as for governments and city planners to positively influence the mobility future of mobility.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
customersupport@researchsolutions.com
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.