Floods are a major contributor to natural disasters in Sumatra. However, atmospheric conditions leading to floods are not well understood due, among other factors, to the lack of a complete record of floods. Here, the 5 year flood record for Sumatra derived from governmental reports, as well as from crowd-sourcing data, based on Twitter messages and local newspapers’ reports, is created and used to analyze atmospheric phenomena responsible for floods. It is shown, that for the majority of analyzed floods, convectively coupled Kelvin waves, large scale precipitation systems propagating at ∼12 m/s along the equator, play the critical role. While seasonal and intraseasonal variability can also create conditions favorable for flooding, the enhanced precipitation related to Kelvin waves was found in over 90% of flood events. In 30% of these events precipitation anomalies were attributed to Kelvin waves only. These results indicate the potential for increased predictability of flood risk.
The geomorphological signature of tropical glaciers has the potential to provide important information on the response of ice masses in high‐mountain environments to climate warming. This study investigates the glacial geomorphology of Charquini Sur, Bolivia. Detailed geomorphological mapping was conducted both in the field and from satellite imagery in order to produce a 1:4000 scale geomorphological map of the glacier foreland. Sedimentological analyses (description of physical characteristics, clast shape and roundness, particle‐size distribution) provided additional insight into the landform–sediment assemblage. Glacial landforms are well preserved and include up to 11 moraine ridge suites, seven of which are cross‐valley frontal moraine arcs. These can be linked to an existing lichenometric chronology from previous work and record glacier recession since the local Little Ice Age (LIA) maximum in the late‐1600s. Lateral moraine ridges also record continuous thinning of the glacier over this time period. Smaller groups of parallel ridges are interpreted as annual moraines formed during recession. Intermorainic areas consist of flutings and a typically thin sediment cover of subglacial, supraglacial and glaciofluvial origin, with prominent ice‐moulded bedrock protuberances in places. Analysis of the landform–sediment assemblage provides an insight into the main controls on landform genesis in the basin and implies there have been temporal changes in ice‐marginal dynamics since the LIA. We present the first landsystem model for a tropical cirque glacier, documenting its behaviour since the LIA and providing an indication of glacier response in rapidly‐warming high‐mountain environments. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
On the basis of detailed analysis of a case study and long-term climatology, it is shown that equatorial waves and their interactions serve as precursors for extreme rain and flood events in the central Maritime Continent region of southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia. Meteorological conditions on January 22, 2019 leading to heavy rainfall and devastating flooding in this area are studied. It is shown that a convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) and a convectively coupled equatorial Rossby wave (CCERW) embedded within the larger-scale envelope of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) enhanced convective phase, contributed to the onset of a mesoscale convective system which developed over the Java Sea. Low-level convergence from the CCKW forced mesoscale convective organization and orographic ascent of moist air over the slopes of southwest Sulawesi. Climatological analysis shows that 92% of December-January-February floods and 76% of extreme rain events in this region were immediately preceded by positive low-level westerly wind anomalies. It is estimated that both CCKWs and CCERWs propagating over Sulawesi double the chance of floods and extreme rain event development, while the probability of such hazardous events occurring during their combined activity is eight times greater than on a random day. While the MJO is a key component shaping tropical atmospheric variability, it is shown that its usefulness as a single factor for extreme weather-driven hazard prediction is limited.
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