When a statistical equation includes a multiplicative term in order to capture interaction effects, the statistical significance of the lowerorder coefficients is largely useless for the typical purposes of hypothesis testing. This fact remains largely unappreciated in political science, however. This brief paper explains this point, provides examples, and offers some suggestions for more meaningful interpretation. * Forthcoming, International Organization. I am grateful to Tim McDaniel, Anne Sartori, and Beth Simmons for comments on a previous draft.

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Theories that posit complex causation, or multiple causal paths, pervade the study of politics but have yet to find accurate statistical expression. To remedy this situation I derive new econometric procedures, Boolean probit and logit, based on the logic of complexity. The solution provides an answer to a puzzle in the rational deterrence literature: the divergence between theory and case-study findings, on the one hand, and the findings of quantitative studies, on the other, on the issue of the role of capabilities and willingness in the initiation of disputes. It also makes the case that different methodological traditions, rather than settling into “separate but equal” status, can instead inform and enrich one another.

IntroductionIn recent years, the availability of online source material and online papers has increased instructors' concerns regarding plagiarism in the classroom. Many instructors do not realize, however, that the digital revolution has also created a niche for fast and (at least somewhat) reliable plagiarism-detection software.