Offshore pipelines are increasingly being employed to transport offshore hydrocarbons to onshore processing facilities. Pipelines laid directly on the seabed are subject to a considerable hydrodynamic loading from waves and currents and must be accurately designed for on-bottom stability. Confidence in the stability of pipelines requires appropriate models for their assessment and, in this paper, particular emphasis is placed on achieving an integrated and balanced approach in considering the nonlinearities and uncertainties in the pipe structure, the reaction of the restraining soil, and the hydrodynamic loading applied. A statistical approach is followed by developing a response surface model for the pipeline maximum horizontal displacement within a storm, while including variability in parameters. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used in combination with the developed response surface model to calculate the extreme response statistics. The benefit of this approach is demonstrated and also used to investigate the sensitivity of the on-bottom pipeiine simulation for a variety of model input parameters. These results provide guidance to engineers as to what uncertainties are worth reducing, if possible, before apipe is designed.
Offshore pipelines provide the main link between offshore oil and gas fields and hydrocarbon development onshore. Due to their economical installation, untrenched pipelines laid “on-bottom” are finding increased popularity over other types of offshore pipelines. However, the stability of untrenched pipeline design remains the subject of criticism. In many cases around the world, severe loading conditions, such as those during hurricanes, result in severe pipeline damage and disruption of oil and gas supply. In on-bottom pipeline stability analysis, hydrodynamic loads are applied to the pipe structure. The pipe passes these loads onto the supporting soil along its length. A variety of parameters need to be defined to model this loading scenario and to reflect the complicated interaction between the hydrodynamic load, pipe structure and the supporting soil. Moreover, there are uncertainties regarding the input values of these parameters, as any difference in these parameter values will result in a considerable difference in the final pipeline stability result (though the sensitivity to any differences is not well studied). In this study of the offshore pipeline stability, the hydrodynamic loads are estimated using Fourier analysis, which is currently the best practice in hydrodynamic modeling. The pipe-soil interaction is simulated with a force-resultant model, which is derived from a plasticity framework and is based on the results of centrifuge test calibration. The pipeline is modeled using an integrated numerical modeling tool developed by implementing the hydrodynamic load model and force-resultant model codes in the finite element package ABAQUS. Use of the integrated modeling tool allows for the coupling effect of the hydrodynamic-pipe-soil interaction to be accounted for, with the added ability to modify the applied hydrodynamic loads due to pipe movements during the analysis. The main aims of this paper are to demonstrate methods to estimate the probability of exceeding pipeline stability and quantify the importance of the on-bottom pipeline statistical analysis and the sensitivity of the parameters included in the pipeline stability design. After first describing the integrated model and providing an illustrative example of its use these aims are achieved by i) performing probabilistic analysis for a typical pipeline case and investigating the probability of exceeding pipeline stability under different maximum pipeline displacement values; and ii) developing a sensitivity analysis of the input parameters included in the on-bottom pipeline stability and ranking these parameters according to their sensitivity to the pipeline stability design.
a b s t r a c tPipelines are the critical link between major offshore oil and gas developments and the mainland. Any inadequate on-bottom stability design could result in disruption and failure, having a devastating impact on the economy and environment. Predicting the stability behavior of offshore pipelines in hurricanes is therefore vital to the assessment of both new design and existing assets. The Gulf of Mexico has a very dense network of pipeline systems constructed on the seabed. During the last two decades, the Gulf of Mexico has experienced a series of strong hurricanes, which have destroyed, disrupted and destabilized many pipelines. This paper first reviews some of these engineering cases. Following that, three case studies are retrospectively simulated using an in-house developed program. The study utilizes the offshore pipeline and hurricane details to conduct a Dynamic Lateral Stability analysis, with the results providing evidence as to the accuracy of the modeling techniques developed.
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