No abstract

The success of European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) will depend on the stability of the euro. The monetary policy framework is yet to be decided, but is likely to involve either money or inflation targeting. Stochastic simulations compare the outcomes for major macroeconomic and financial variables pre-and post-EMU under both policy rules, as well as under an inflation targeting rule that includes output. Implications for the euro as a reserve currency are examined in the light of the expected returns and covariances among reserve currencies. The role of the exchange rate as an indicator and incentives for policy coordination with other major countries are also discussed.

No abstract

This is a working paper und [he uuthnr would welcome any comments on the present text Citations should refer to an unpublished manuscript, mentioning the author and the date of issuance by the International Monetary Fund. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Ihe Fund.

This paper analyzes the recent behavior of real exchange rates, the trade balance and the net foreign asset position of the United States in an intertemporal optimizing model of the world economy that incorporates heterogeneity across countries and imperfect international capital and good markets. While the model successfully tracks the dynamics of trade balances and net foreign assets it generates too much consumption smoothing and excessively volatile relative prices. Resolving these inadequacies simultaneously is difficult as the elasticity of substitution between tradables and nontradables affects in opposite ways the degree of consumption smoothing and the volatility of relative prices.