The potential for mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae), to expand its historical range in North America from west of the continental divide into the eastern boreal forest was assessed on the basis of analyses of the effects of climate and weather on brood development and survival, and key aspects of the interaction of mountain pine beetle with its hosts and associated organisms. Variation in climate suitability and high host susceptibility in the boreal forest create a finite risk of establishment and local persistence of low-level mountain pine beetle populations outside their historical range. Eventually, these populations could become widespread and cause epidemic infestations, creating an ecological pathway eastward through the boreal forest. Such infestations would reduce the commercial value of forests and impose an additional disturbance on native ecological systems.

The current epidemic of the mountain pine beetle (MPB), an indigenous pest of western North American pine, has resulted in significant losses of lodgepole pine. The leading edge has reached Alberta where forest composition shifts from lodgepole to jack pine through a hybrid zone. The susceptibility of jack pine to MPB is a major concern, but there has been no evidence of host-range expansion, in part due to the difficulty in distinguishing the parentals and their hybrids. We tested the utility of a panel of microsatellite loci optimized for both species to classify lodgepole pine, jack pine and their hybrids using simulated data. We were able to accurately classify simulated individuals, and hence applied these markers to identify the ancestry of attacked trees. Here we show for the first time successful MPB attack in natural jack pine stands at the leading edge of the epidemic. This once unsuitable habitat is now a novel environment for MPB to exploit, a potential risk which could be exacerbated by further climate change. The consequences of host-range expansion for the vast boreal ecosystem could be significant.

No abstract

Abstract-Outbreaks of insect pests periodically cause large losses of volume in Canada's forests.