This study examines the Fish Pool salmon futures contract with respect to how well the market performs in terms of the futures price being an unbiased estimator of the spot price and whether the market provides a price discovery function. Using data for 2006-2014 and with futures prices with maturities up to 6 months we find that spot and lagged futures prices are cointegrated and that the futures price provides an unbiased estimate of the spot price. We also find that, with the exception of the front month, that the causality is one-directional. The spot prices lead futures prices between 1-6 months maturity. Hence, while the spot and lagged futures prices are unbiased estimates, we do not find support for the hypothesis that futures prices provide a price discovery function. Rather, it seems that innovations in the spot price influence futures prices. This finding is not uncommon in new and immature futures contracts markets. Hence, the salmon futures market is still immature and has not yet reached the stage where futures prices are able to predict future spot prices.
According to economic theory, exploration and development of new oil and gas fields should respond positively to increasing petroleum prices. But since the late 1990s, stock market analysts have focused strongly on short-term accounting return measures, like RoACE 1 , for benchmarking and valuation of international oil and gas companies. Consequently, exaggerated capital discipline among oil and gas companies may have reduced their willingness to invest for future reserves and production growth. Based on panel data for 14 international oil and gas companies for the period 1990-2003, we seek to establish econometric relations between market valuation on one hand, and simple financial and operational indicators on the other. Our findings do not support the general perception of RoACE as an important valuation metric in the oil and gas industry. We find that the variation in company valuations is mainly explained by the oil price, oil and gas production, and to some extent reserve replacement.
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